Elbit Systems has demonstrated consistent and wide earnings outperformance across four consecutive quarters, averaging nearly 20% above consensus, with strong earnings growth—but the stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 45.1x and converts only 16% of reported net income into free cash flow, two constraints that leave the current valuation highly dependent on sustained flawless execution.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Premium Valuation Thin Asymmetry→Stable
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $739.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).
Elbit Systems Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies defense and homeland security arenas products and services in Israel, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Aerospace; C4I... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $739.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Elbit Systems Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Elbit Systems (ESLT) Q4 2025 Beat: Revenue $N/A, EPS Exceeds by Significant - Stock Analysis Community - Newser — Newser positive
- NEWS Elbit Systems Secures S&P Maalot Upgrade to Top Local Rating - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS S&P Global Ratings Maalot Raises Elbit Systems' Long Term Rating to "ilAAA" (Local Scale), With a Stable Outlook and Rea — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Elbit Systems: Record Backlog Makes The Pullback A Buy (NASDAQ:ESLT) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Elbit Systems (TASE:ESLT) Stock Looks Cheap On Earnings But Pricey On Broader Value - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T20:52:02Z.
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Thesis
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Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $739.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $711.00. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $850.68 (-4.0% upside). Prior stop was $711.00. Stop-loss: $711.00.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Elbit Systems Ltd. trades at a P/E of 56.1 (forward 40.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover ESLT with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $816.
What does Elbit Systems Ltd. do?Elbit Systems Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies defense and homeland security arenas products...
Elbit Systems Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies defense and homeland security arenas products and services in Israel, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Aerospace; C4I and Cyber; Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance and Electronic Warfare; Land; and Elbit Systems of America. It offers airborne platforms, unmanned aerial solutions, precision guided munition sensors, aerostructures, training and simulator systems, flight academy solutions, and commercial aviation systems; and command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, as well as data links and radio communication systems and equipment, cyber intelligence solutions, and autonomous and homeland security solutions. The company also provides various electro-optic laser solutions and countermeasure systems and products, naval combat management and sonar systems, and electronic warfare, signal Intelligence, and radar systems; indirect fire, turrets and weapons, ammunition and munition, and active protection systems; and products, system solutions, and support services to defense, homeland security, law enforcement, commercial aviation, and medical instrumentation markets. It serves various governments and companies. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Haifa, Israel.