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Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $260.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.7%.

Ecolab is a global provider of water treatment, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions with $16B in 2025 annual sales across Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences segments in 170+ countries. Approximately 47% of... Read more

$260.32+9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#19 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
Stop $247.00Target $285.73(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$317.48+22.0%21 analysts
$285.73our TP
$260.32price
$317.48mean
$352

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $260.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.7%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.7%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.2
P/E (Fwd)26.5
Mkt Cap$72.5B
EV/EBITDA20.1
Profit Mgn12.8%
ROE22.4%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta1.02
Dividend1.08%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicinternational (outside United States)47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'in 2025, approximately 47% of our net sales were generated from customers outside the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Ecolab expanded its One Ecolab restructuring initiative on February 10, 2026, with total expected restructuring costs of $334M ($261M after tax) and special charges of $91M ($71M after tax) by end of 2027, primarily cash severance for team realignment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Ecolab Board appointed Christophe Beck to President (additional to Chairman/CEO role), Darrell Brown to Co-COO Global Markets, and Gregory Cook to Co-COO Global Businesses, all effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Victoria J. Reich will not stand for re-election as Ecolab director at the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 7, 2026. Her decision was not the result of any disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $254.53Resistance $279.00

Price Targets

$247
$286
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $260.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.7%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $247.00. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ECL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $285.73 (+9.7% upside). Prior stop was $247.00. Stop-loss: $247.00.

What are the risks of investing in ECL?

Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Negative momentum.

Is ECL overvalued or undervalued?

Ecolab Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.2 (forward 26.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ECL?

31 analysts cover ECL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $317.

What does Ecolab Inc. do?Ecolab is a global provider of water treatment, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions with $16B in 2025 annual...

Ecolab is a global provider of water treatment, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions with $16B in 2025 annual sales across Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences segments in 170+ countries. Approximately 47% of 2025 net sales were generated outside the United States.

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