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Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $249.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Ecolab is a global provider of water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions with $16 billion in annual sales across four segments—Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences—serving customers in 170+ countries. No... Read more

$249.21+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#22 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.26%
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 1.05%)Payout37.35%sustainable
Stop $237.89Target $285.73(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$317.48+27.4%21 analysts
$285.73our TP
$249.21price
$317.48mean
$352

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $249.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ecolab Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.7
P/E (Fwd)25.9
Mkt Cap$70.1B
EV/EBITDA19.5
Profit Mgn12.8%
ROE22.4%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.93
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductwarewashing products13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales of warewashing products were approximately 13% of consolidated net sales in 2025 and 12% in 2024 and 2023.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Effective April 1, 2026: Christophe Beck appointed President (retains CEO/Chairman); Darrell R. Brown appointed Co-COO Global Markets; Gregory B. Cook appointed Co-COO Global Businesses. All are existing executives in expanded roles. No departures cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Director Victoria J. Reich informed the Board she will not stand for re-election at the May 7, 2026 annual meeting. Decision not the result of any disagreement with the Company. Will continue serving until annual meeting.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Expansion of One Ecolab restructuring initiative announced. Total restructuring costs anticipated at $334M ($261M after tax) and special charges of $91M ($71M after tax) by end of 2027, primarily cash severance for team realignment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $245.25Resistance $277.69

Price Targets

$238
$286
A.Upside+14.7%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $249.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $237.89. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ECL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $285.73 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $237.89. Stop-loss: $237.89.

What are the risks of investing in ECL?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is ECL overvalued or undervalued?

Ecolab Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.7 (forward 25.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ECL?

32 analysts cover ECL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $317.

What does Ecolab Inc. do?Ecolab is a global provider of water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions with $16 billion in annual sales...

Ecolab is a global provider of water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions with $16 billion in annual sales across four segments—Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences—serving customers in 170+ countries. No single customer constitutes 10%+ of revenues, but warewashing products comprised approximately 13% of 2025 consolidated net sales.

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