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Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.59 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Addus HomeCare provides personal care (non-medical), hospice, and home health services across 23 states through 262 offices, serving ~107,000 consumers in 2025 with $1.42B in net service revenues. Revenue comes primarily from government payors — state/local Medicaid agencies... Read more

$92.59+24.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#19 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.95%
Stop $87.07Target $115.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$132.69+43.3%13 analysts
$115.44our TP
$92.59price
$132.69mean
$155

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.59 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Addus HomeCare Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth7.7%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicIllinois37%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we derived approximately 37.0% of our net service revenues from services provided in Illinois'
  • LOWGeographicTexas15%
    10-K Item 1A: '15.2% from services provided in Texas'
  • LOWGeographicNew Mexico13%
    10-K Item 1A: '13.1% from services provided in New Mexico'
  • MEDIUMCustomerIllinois Department on Aging18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 18.1%...of our revenue from the Illinois Department on Aging programs'
  • MEDIUMCustomerstate and local governmental agencies (Medicaid)39%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 39.3% of our net service revenues from state and local governmental agencies, primarily through Medicaid state programs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
4.7
Growth Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)NEWS LEGALA.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $89.76Resistance $103.50

Price Targets

$87
$115
A.Upside+24.7%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Red flag in news: 'fraud'
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADUS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.59 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $87.07. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $115.44 (+24.7% upside). Prior stop was $87.07. Stop-loss: $87.07.

What are the risks of investing in ADUS?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is ADUS overvalued or undervalued?

Addus HomeCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADUS?

20 analysts cover ADUS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $133.

What does Addus HomeCare Corporation do?Addus HomeCare provides personal care (non-medical), hospice, and home health services across 23 states through 262...

Addus HomeCare provides personal care (non-medical), hospice, and home health services across 23 states through 262 offices, serving ~107,000 consumers in 2025 with $1.42B in net service revenues. Revenue comes primarily from government payors — state/local Medicaid agencies (39.3%) and Medicare (20.5%) — with the remainder from managed care organizations serving dual-eligible populations.

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