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Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $44.00, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers.

Leonardo DRS provides advanced defense technology to the U.S. military and allied forces through two segments: Advanced Sensing and Computing (sensors, EW, computing) and Integrated Mission Systems (naval propulsion, force protection). 80% of 2025 revenues came from U.S.... Read more

$44.00+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#31 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.32%
IncomeYield0.84%Payout33.64%sustainable
Stop $40.03Target $46.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$52.90+20.2%10 analysts
$46.02our TP
$44.00price
$52.90mean
$59

Sell if holding. At $44.00, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Leonardo DRS, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers
Thin upside margin: 7.5%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.0
P/E (Fwd)29.7
Mkt Cap$11.4B
EV/EBITDA24.6
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.03
Dividend0.84%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government80%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenues derived directly, as a prime contractor, or indirectly, as a subcontractor, from contracts with the U.S. government represented 80%, 79% and 80% of our total revenues for 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Navy36%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues principally derived directly or indirectly from contracts with the U.S. Navy and U.S. Army, which represented 36% and 36%, respectively, of our total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Army36%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues principally derived directly or indirectly from contracts with the U.S. Navy and U.S. Army, which represented 36% and 36%, respectively, of our total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source component suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'several suppliers serve as the sole source of certain components. If a supplier should cease to deliver such components, generally, but not in all cases, we would expect that other sources would be available'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02LOW
    David W. Carey (proxy holder director) retiring March 31, 2026 after 17 years; no disagreement cited. Reuben Jeffery III approved by DCSA and appointed as replacement proxy holder director effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
5.5
Quality Rank
5.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.5
Support Resistance
2.0
52w Position
7.5
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.47Resistance $43.88

Price Targets

$40
$46
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $44.00, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $40.03. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the DRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.02 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $40.03. Stop-loss: $40.03.

What are the risks of investing in DRS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers; Thin upside margin: 7.5%.

Is DRS overvalued or undervalued?

Leonardo DRS, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.0 (forward 29.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRS?

15 analysts cover DRS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Leonardo DRS, Inc. do?Leonardo DRS provides advanced defense technology to the U.S. military and allied forces through two segments: Advanced...

Leonardo DRS provides advanced defense technology to the U.S. military and allied forces through two segments: Advanced Sensing and Computing (sensors, EW, computing) and Integrated Mission Systems (naval propulsion, force protection). 80% of 2025 revenues came from U.S. government contracts, with the Navy and Army each representing 36% of total revenues.

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