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Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.61: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Dow Inc. is a global materials science company with three operating segments—Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings—generating ~$40B in sales in 2025 across 29 manufacturing countries with ~34,600... Read more

$38.61+0.5% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#9 of 10 Chemicals
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-2.43%
IncomeYield3.63%(5y avg 6.02%)Payout700.00%at-risk
Stop $35.86Target $38.76(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$43.06+11.5%16 analysts
$38.76our TP
$38.61price
$43.06mean
$35
$51

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.61: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Dow Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (0.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$27.8B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn-7.2%
ROE-15.3%
Rev Growth-6.1%
Beta0.45
Dividend3.63%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV61%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Karen S. Carter as CEO effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Jim Fitterling who transitions to Executive Chair. Carter was COO since December 2024. Clean handoff; Fitterling remains with company as Executive Chair through at least 2027.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
6.5
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
2.6
Value Rank
3.0
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.72Resistance $41.48

Price Targets

$36
$39
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.61: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.86. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the DOW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.76 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $35.86. Stop-loss: $35.86.

What are the risks of investing in DOW?

Target reached (0.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is DOW overvalued or undervalued?

Dow Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DOW?

24 analysts cover DOW with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Dow Inc. do?Dow Inc. is a global materials science company with three operating segments—Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial...

Dow Inc. is a global materials science company with three operating segments—Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings—generating ~$40B in sales in 2025 across 29 manufacturing countries with ~34,600 employees. Revenue is driven by commodity and specialty chemicals sold to packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and industrial customers.

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