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Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.05: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Dow is a materials science company delivering approximately $40B in annual sales through Packaging and Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, and Performance Materials and Coatings segments across 29 countries with approximately 34,600 employees. Sells... Read more

$40.05+3.7% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#8 of 10 Chemicals
Stop $37.23Target $41.52(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$42.94+7.2%16 analysts
$41.52our TP
$40.05price
$42.94mean
$33
$51

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.05: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-3.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$28.5B
EV/EBITDA17.2
Profit Mgn-7.2%
ROE-15.3%
Rev Growth-6.1%
Beta0.49
Dividend3.54%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.82bearish
IV64%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Karen S. Carter appointed CEO effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Jim Fitterling who becomes Executive Chair until the 2027 Annual Meeting. Clean handoff with defined transition.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-29Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Dow announced Transform to Outperform on January 26, 2026: comprehensive restructuring to simplify operating model, reduce cost structure, and improve near-term Operating EBITDA. Board approved January 26, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
6.5
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.6
Value Rank
4.0
Growth Rank
4.0
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.80Resistance $42.37

Price Targets

$37
$42
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DOW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.05: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $37.23. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

What is the DOW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.52 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $37.23. Stop-loss: $37.23.

What are the risks of investing in DOW?

Target reached (-3.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is DOW overvalued or undervalued?

Dow Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DOW?

24 analysts cover DOW with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Dow Inc. do?Dow is a materials science company delivering approximately $40B in annual sales through Packaging and Specialty...

Dow is a materials science company delivering approximately $40B in annual sales through Packaging and Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, and Performance Materials and Coatings segments across 29 countries with approximately 34,600 employees. Sells to packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer markets globally.

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