D.R. Horton concentrates roughly 92% of its revenue in homebuilding and channels approximately 71% of its mortgage originations through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, creating layered concentration risk that could amplify a housing-cycle downturn; revenue is already in modest decline, the stock trades within 1.3% of near-term resistance, and the risk/reward is unfavorable despite an undemanding forward valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Gse Customer Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Homebuilding Product Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Revenue In Modest Decline↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 19, 2025· older than 90 days
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. At $145.23, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: homebuilding (92.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%).
D.R. Horton is the largest US homebuilder by homes closed, operating across 126 markets in 36 states through homebuilding, rental, Forestar lot development, and DHI Mortgage financial services segments. Homebuilding drives 92% of the $34.3 billion in consolidated revenues... Read more
Sell if holding. At $145.23, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: homebuilding (92.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About D.R. Horton, Inc.
About D.R. Horton, Inc.
D.R. Horton closed 84,863 homes in fiscal 2025, generating consolidated revenues of $34.3 billion — 92% from homebuilding and the remainder from rental, lot development, and financial services. The company operates across 126 markets in 36 states and has been the largest US homebuilder by volume every year since 2002, having closed more than 1.2 million homes in its 47-year history.
Homebuilding revenue is transactional — paid at closing — with products spanning entry-level, move-up, active adult, and luxury price points from $250,000 to over $1,000,000. Approximately 84% of fiscal 2025 home sales revenue came from single-family detached homes, with attached homes comprising the remainder. Land and lots are acquired primarily through non-recourse purchase contracts, limiting capital at risk to earnest money deposits. DHI Mortgage provided financing for 81% of D.R. Horton homebuyers in fiscal 2025, originating or brokering 68,982 loans; substantially all are sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae-backed securities after origination. Forestar Group Inc., of which D.R. Horton owns 62%, sold 14,240 lots in fiscal 2025, with 83% going to D.R. Horton homebuilding, supporting lot supply continuity. Rental operations closed 3,460 single-family and 2,947 multi-family units in fiscal 2025.
Show full overview
DHI Mortgage's secondary market is heavily concentrated with government-sponsored entities: approximately 71% of mortgage loans originated in fiscal 2025 were sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae-backed securities, and 27% to one other major financial entity. The company's $1.4 billion committed mortgage repurchase facility — the primary warehouse line — matures May 6, 2026, making near-term renewal a live operational item. An 18% contract cancellation rate in fiscal 2025 signals ongoing buyer sensitivity to mortgage rate levels.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From D.R. Horton, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — D.R. Horton, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on D.R. Horton, Lowers Price Target to $130 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Adjusts D.R. Horton Price Target — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS D.R. Horton's Q4 Earnings Miss on Weak Housing Demand, Sales Beat - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS D.R. Horton, Inc. 2026 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:DHI) 2026-10-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) surprises with Q3 CY2026 sales but full-year sales guidance misses expectations significantly - T — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProducthomebuilding92%10-K Item 1: 'Homebuilding is our core business, generating 92% of consolidated revenues of $34.3 billion'
- HIGHCustomerFannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae71%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71% of our mortgage loans were sold directly to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or into securities backed by Ginnie Mae'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -3.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $145.23, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: homebuilding (92.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $135.06. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $129.32 reached (−11.0% from $145.23); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $135.06. Stop-loss: $135.06.
Concentration risk — Product: homebuilding (92.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
D.R. Horton, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts rate DHI, with a consensus score of 3.3/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $149.
What does D.R. Horton, Inc. do?D.R. Horton is the largest US homebuilder by homes closed, operating across 126 markets in 36 states through...
D.R. Horton is the largest US homebuilder by homes closed, operating across 126 markets in 36 states through homebuilding, rental, Forestar lot development, and DHI Mortgage financial services segments. Homebuilding drives 92% of the $34.3 billion in consolidated revenues generated in fiscal 2025, with 84,863 homes closed at an average price of $370,400.