D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding, rental, lot development (Forestar), and financial services. Homebuilding drove 92% of $34.3B fiscal 2025 revenues, closing 84,863 homes at a $370,400... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — D.R. Horton, Inc.
Latest news
- DR Horton (DHI) faces target cuts from Wells Fargo and Barclays amid housing weakness - MSN — MSN negative
- D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) Stock Up 5.8% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 94/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- Evercore ISI raises D.R. Horton stock price target on margin beat - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- BofA raises D.R. Horton stock price target on margin strength - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- DR Horton Inc Stock (DHI) Opened Up by 8.47% on Apr 21: Facts Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyone other major financial entity27%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71% of our mortgage loans were sold directly to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or into securities backed by Ginnie Mae, and 27% were sold to one other major financial entity'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $143.80 (+4.6%), stop $130.73 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $143.80 (+4.6% upside). Target $143.80 (+4.6%), stop $130.73 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $130.73.
Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
D.R. Horton, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
27 analysts cover DHI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $165.
What does D.R. Horton, Inc. do?D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through...
D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding, rental, lot development (Forestar), and financial services. Homebuilding drove 92% of $34.3B fiscal 2025 revenues, closing 84,863 homes at a $370,400 average price. DHI Mortgage originated 68,982 loans and provided financing for 81% of its homebuyers.