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D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding, rental, lot development (Forestar), and financial services. Homebuilding drove 92% of $34.3B fiscal 2025 revenues, closing 84,863 homes at a $370,400... Read more

$137.49+4.6% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#10 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.37%
IncomeYield1.31%(5y avg 0.95%)Payout15.96%sustainable
Stop $130.73Target $143.80(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$165.29+20.2%14 analysts
$143.80our TP
$137.49price
$165.29mean
$123
$206

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — D.R. Horton, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.9
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$39.0B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn9.5%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth-2.3%
Beta1.41
Dividend1.31%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.30bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$105-23.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyone other major financial entity27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71% of our mortgage loans were sold directly to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or into securities backed by Ginnie Mae, and 27% were sold to one other major financial entity'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -2%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $134.77Resistance $166.48

Price Targets

$131
$144
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DHI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $143.80 (+4.6%), stop $130.73 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the DHI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $143.80 (+4.6% upside). Target $143.80 (+4.6%), stop $130.73 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $130.73.

What are the risks of investing in DHI?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DHI overvalued or undervalued?

D.R. Horton, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DHI?

27 analysts cover DHI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $165.

What does D.R. Horton, Inc. do?D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through...

D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding, rental, lot development (Forestar), and financial services. Homebuilding drove 92% of $34.3B fiscal 2025 revenues, closing 84,863 homes at a $370,400 average price. DHI Mortgage originated 68,982 loans and provided financing for 81% of its homebuyers.

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