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Deere & Company (DE) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $540.97. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $550.61. Engine's entry $540.97 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Deere & Company manufactures agricultural equipment (PPA: $17.3B, SAT: $10.2B; 71% of equipment net sales) and construction/forestry equipment (CF: $11.4B; 29%), plus financial services. Tariffs directly impacted product and component costs by approximately $600M in FY2025.... Read more

$550.61+11.3% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#12 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.79%
IncomeYield1.16%(5y avg 1.23%)Payout36.55%sustainable
Entry $540.97(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $514.74Target $598.59(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$665.10+20.8%23 analysts
$598.59our TP
$550.61price
$665.10mean
$500
$793

Wait for pullback to $540.97. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $550.61. Engine's entry $540.97 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Deere & Company

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: T. Brent Norwood, age 44, appointed SVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, replacing acting CFO Ryan Campbell, who continues as President, Worldwide Construction & Forestry and Power Systems. Norwood previously VP & Finance Director, Construction & Forestry.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.4
P/E (Fwd)24.2
Mkt Cap$150.7B
EV/EBITDA22.2
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE19.6%
Rev Growth-11.1%
Beta0.97
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C3.53bearish
IV57%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    T. Brent Norwood, age 44, appointed SVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, replacing acting CFO Ryan Campbell, who continues as President, Worldwide Construction & Forestry and Power Systems. Norwood previously VP & Finance Director, Construction & Forestry.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved one-time PSU grants to named executive officers and certain senior officers on approximately March 19, 2026, under the 2020 Equity and Incentive Plan. Performance period runs through October 2030 based on SVA targets. Compensatory arrangement only.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -11.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.3
Declining revenue: -11%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $550.40Resistance $594.97

Price Targets

$515
$541
$599
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R1.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $540.97. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $550.61. Engine's entry $540.97 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $598.59 (+8.7%), stop $514.74 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

What is the DE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $598.59 (+11.3% upside). Target $598.59 (+8.7%), stop $514.74 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $514.74.

What are the risks of investing in DE?

Thin upside margin: 8.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is DE overvalued or undervalued?

Deere & Company trades at a P/E of 31.4 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DE?

34 analysts cover DE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $665.

What does Deere & Company do?Deere & Company manufactures agricultural equipment (PPA: $17.3B, SAT: $10.2B; 71% of equipment net sales) and...

Deere & Company manufactures agricultural equipment (PPA: $17.3B, SAT: $10.2B; 71% of equipment net sales) and construction/forestry equipment (CF: $11.4B; 29%), plus financial services. Tariffs directly impacted product and component costs by approximately $600M in FY2025. Nearly 80% of domestic sales are assembled in the U.S.; equipment sold globally through ~2,050 independent dealer locations in the U.S. and Canada.

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