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Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Ducommun designs and manufactures high-reliability electronics and aerostructures through Electronic Systems and Structural Systems segments, primarily for aerospace and defense customers (96% of 2025 net revenues). RTX Corporation was the largest customer at 18% of 2025 net... Read more

$141.06+1.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#41 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $131.19Target $142.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$146.60+3.9%5 analysts
$142.98our TP
$141.06price
$146.60mean
$136
$155

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: RTX Corporation (18.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (61.0%)
Target reached (-9.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)26.4
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn-4.1%
ROE-5.0%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta1.00
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerRTX Corporation18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'RTX generating 18% of our 2025 net revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomerBoeing13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Boeing generating 13% and RTX generating 18% of our 2025 net revenues'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues from our top 10 customers, including Boeing and RTX, were 61% of total net revenues during 2025'
  • HIGHCustomeraerospace and defense96%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest end-use markets are the aerospace and defense markets ... revenues from these markets represented 96% of our total net revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
2.6
Value Rank
6.7

Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.4
Roa
2.8
Operating Margin
4.1
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.5
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $122.92Resistance $145.90

Price Targets

$131
$143
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-11.1% YoY), High leverage (D/E 3.8)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $131.19. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $142.98 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $131.19. Stop-loss: $131.19.

What are the risks of investing in DCO?

Concentration risk — Customer: RTX Corporation (18.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (61.0%); Target reached (-9.6% upside).

Is DCO overvalued or undervalued?

Ducommun Incorporated trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 26.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DCO?

9 analysts cover DCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Ducommun Incorporated do?Ducommun designs and manufactures high-reliability electronics and aerostructures through Electronic Systems and...

Ducommun designs and manufactures high-reliability electronics and aerostructures through Electronic Systems and Structural Systems segments, primarily for aerospace and defense customers (96% of 2025 net revenues). RTX Corporation was the largest customer at 18% of 2025 net revenues and Boeing at 13%, with the top-10 customers comprising 61% of total revenues.

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