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Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.55 — A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Donaldson manufactures filtration products across Mobile Solutions (62.1% of FY2025 net sales), Industrial Solutions (29.9%), and Life Sciences (8%) segments from 150+ global locations on six continents. No customer represented 10% or more of net sales in FY2025, FY2024, or... Read more

$81.55+2.8% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#42 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.68%
IncomeYield1.47%(5y avg 1.49%)Payout36.56%sustainable
Stop $78.14Target $83.87(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$96.40+18.2%5 analysts
$83.87our TP
$81.55price
$96.40mean
$123

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.55 — A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak overall score: 4.7/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.5
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE24.3%
Rev Growth3.0%
Beta1.00
Dividend1.47%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV36%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.4
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.7
Revenue Growth
3.2
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $80.56Resistance $90.73

Price Targets

$78
$84
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DCI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.55 — A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $78.14. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the DCI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.87 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $78.14. Stop-loss: $78.14.

What are the risks of investing in DCI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Is DCI overvalued or undervalued?

Donaldson Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DCI?

12 analysts cover DCI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $96.

What does Donaldson Company, Inc. do?Donaldson manufactures filtration products across Mobile Solutions (62.1% of FY2025 net sales), Industrial Solutions...

Donaldson manufactures filtration products across Mobile Solutions (62.1% of FY2025 net sales), Industrial Solutions (29.9%), and Life Sciences (8%) segments from 150+ global locations on six continents. No customer represented 10% or more of net sales in FY2025, FY2024, or FY2023. Revenue comes from OEM equipment sales and high-margin aftermarket replacement filters.

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