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DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.Sell5.5·$85.90
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Donaldson carries a high-quality industrial franchise with a 28% return on equity and a perfect balance sheet health score, but the stock has effectively reached its analyst price target with virtually no remaining upside, making the risk/reward unattractive for new positions at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Industrial Franchise→Stable
  • Fcf Below Net Income→Stable
  • Price At Analyst Target→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Sep 25, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.90 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mobile Solutions segment (62.3%).

Donaldson makes filtration products and systems in three segments: Mobile Solutions (62.3% of fiscal 2026 net sales; engine air, fuel, lube, hydraulic and emissions filters), Industrial Solutions (29.1%) and Life Sciences (8.6%). It sells to OEMs, independent distributors,... Read more

$85.90+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#33 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.24%
IncomeYield1.44%(5y avg 1.48%)Payout31.69%sustainable
Stop $82.04Analyst target $87.35(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst consensus$100.40+16.9%5 analysts with price targets
$87.35Analyst target
$85.90price
$100.40mean
$79
$123

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.90 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mobile Solutions segment (62.3%). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Donaldson Company, Inc.

About Donaldson Company, Inc.

Donaldson's Mobile Solutions segment represented 62.3% of fiscal 2026 net sales, ahead of Industrial Solutions at 29.1% and Life Sciences at 8.6%. By region, the U.S. and Canada contributed 42.5% of fiscal 2026 revenue, EMEA 29.2%, Asia Pacific 17.7%, and Latin America 10.6%. The filtration company had approximately 15,500 full-time employees at July 31, 2026, with 60% in production roles, across more than 150 locations on six continents.

Mobile Solutions sells replacement air, fuel, lube, and hydraulic filters and emissions products for construction, mining, agriculture, and transportation equipment, to original equipment manufacturers, independent distributors, and OEM dealer networks. Industrial Solutions covers dust, fume, and mist collectors, compressed air and industrial gas purification, power generation air inlet systems, and aerospace and defense filtration for fixed-wing aircraft, rotorcraft, missile systems, ground defense vehicles, and naval platforms. Life Sciences sells food and beverage, disk drive, microelectronics, membrane, and bioprocessing products, mainly to large OEMs and direct to end users. The company owns over 3,100 issued patents and performs substantially all research and development in-house, with proprietary media such as PowerCore and Ultra-Web. Its strategy names three priorities: extending market access, expanding technologies and solutions, and pursuing strategic acquisitions in high-margin areas.

Show full overview

Input costs and cyclical end markets shape the risk profile. The principal raw materials are steel, filter media, and petrochemical-based plastic, rubber, and adhesive products, and purchased raw materials represent approximately 67% of cost of sales; the company tries to offset increases through selective price increases and cost reduction. No customer accounted for 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2026, 2025, or 2024, but the filing notes that many customers sit in similar cyclical industries, including construction, agriculture, mining, oil and gas, transportation, power generation, and disk drive, so a downturn in several of them at once could reduce demand for both original equipment and replacement parts.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Donaldson Company, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

No fresh coverage since Aug 25, 2026

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Mobile Solutions segment (62.3%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$9.9B
EV/EBITDA15.5
Profit Mgn11.7%
ROE28.2%
Rev Growth8.0%
Beta0.88
Dividend1.44%
Analysts with ratings12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$45-47.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMobile Solutions segment62%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Mobile Solutions segment, which represents 62.3% of net sales in fiscal 2026'
  • MEDIUMGeographicU.S. and Canada43%
    10-K Item 1: 'their contributing share of fiscal year 2026 revenue are as follows: the U.S. and Canada 42.5%'
  • MEDIUMCommoditysteel, filter media and petrochemical-based raw materials
    10-K Item 1: 'The principal raw materials the Company uses are steel, filter media and petrochemical-based products including plastic, rubber and adhesive products.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-24Item 5.02LOW
    Director Douglas A. Milroy, on the Board since 2016, resigned effective July 31, 2026. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $82.50Resistance $89.60

Price Targets

$82
$87
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.7% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DCI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.90 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mobile Solutions segment (62.3%). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $82.04. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DCI stock price target?

Analyst target: $87.35 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $82.04. Stop-loss: $82.04.

What are the risks of investing in DCI?

Concentration risk — Product: Mobile Solutions segment (62.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is DCI overvalued or undervalued?

Donaldson Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DCI?

12 analysts rate DCI, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $100.

What does Donaldson Company, Inc. do?Donaldson makes filtration products and systems in three segments: Mobile Solutions (62.3% of fiscal 2026 net sales;...

Donaldson makes filtration products and systems in three segments: Mobile Solutions (62.3% of fiscal 2026 net sales; engine air, fuel, lube, hydraulic and emissions filters), Industrial Solutions (29.1%) and Life Sciences (8.6%). It sells to OEMs, independent distributors, dealers and end users from more than 150 locations on six continents. Replacement filters and in-house fine-fiber media technology support its position.

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