Value
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
- ▸PEG: 1.31
CRVL · Why this verdict
Why CorVel (CRVL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a negative slope and falling volume accumulation, with a death-cross pattern in effect — and has missed earnings estimates in all four available reporting periods, making a near-term recovery difficult to justify on the evidence at hand.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Return on equity of 31% signals efficient capital deployment, yet the quality assessment notes the absence of a competitive moat — meaning these above-average returns carry structural erosion risk if competitive dynamics intensify over time. Quality breakdown | Over 12 months, ROE remaining above 25% while cash generation improves would signal that the returns are more durable than the moat assessment implies. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn ROE of 31% sustained over time may itself be evidence of durable competitive advantages that are not yet reflected in the moat score; longevity of the return level would argue against the erosion thesis. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average's slope running at negative 6.5% over the past 30 days, volume is in distribution rather than accumulation, and a death-cross pattern is confirmed — together marking an entrenched, not incipient, downtrend. Momentum breakdown | If the downtrend reverses, price should close above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume trending upward for at least six consecutive weeks. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDeeply oversold conditions can precede sharp mean-reversion rallies; a single catalytic event could rapidly invalidate the technical picture before the trend officially reverses. | ||
The company has failed to meet analyst earnings estimates in all four recorded quarters, with an average negative surprise of roughly 17%, indicating persistent difficulty in clearing the bar set by the market. Earnings | The miss streak is resolved when EPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with a positive surprise percentage. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe earnings data on record spans a narrow window; if current operations have improved materially in recent periods, the historical miss pattern may no longer reflect the business's present earnings trajectory. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.1, a level that weighs on financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk if operating conditions soften — a burden already flagged as a negative factor in the overall assessment. Bear case | Over 12 months, the leverage ratio should decline toward 3.0 or below for this pillar's concern to be substantially resolved. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh leverage can be sustainable if the business generates stable, recurring cash flows to service it; the current-ratio score suggests near-term liquidity is not immediately stressed, and the leverage level alone may not impair operations. | ||
Return on equity of 31% signals efficient capital deployment, yet the quality assessment notes the absence of a competitive moat — meaning these above-average returns carry structural erosion risk if competitive dynamics intensify over time.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, ROE remaining above 25% while cash generation improves would signal that the returns are more durable than the moat assessment implies.
CounterAn ROE of 31% sustained over time may itself be evidence of durable competitive advantages that are not yet reflected in the moat score; longevity of the return level would argue against the erosion thesis.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average's slope running at negative 6.5% over the past 30 days, volume is in distribution rather than accumulation, and a death-cross pattern is confirmed — together marking an entrenched, not incipient, downtrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If the downtrend reverses, price should close above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume trending upward for at least six consecutive weeks.
CounterDeeply oversold conditions can precede sharp mean-reversion rallies; a single catalytic event could rapidly invalidate the technical picture before the trend officially reverses.
The company has failed to meet analyst earnings estimates in all four recorded quarters, with an average negative surprise of roughly 17%, indicating persistent difficulty in clearing the bar set by the market.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak is resolved when EPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with a positive surprise percentage.
CounterThe earnings data on record spans a narrow window; if current operations have improved materially in recent periods, the historical miss pattern may no longer reflect the business's present earnings trajectory.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.1, a level that weighs on financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk if operating conditions soften — a burden already flagged as a negative factor in the overall assessment.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the leverage ratio should decline toward 3.0 or below for this pillar's concern to be substantially resolved.
CounterHigh leverage can be sustainable if the business generates stable, recurring cash flows to service it; the current-ratio score suggests near-term liquidity is not immediately stressed, and the leverage level alone may not impair operations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 5.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,538,834 (0.080% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 54, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 7.1; weakest: Catalyst at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.1, Momentum at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Technical at 2.6, and Value at 5.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks with on-balance volume positive over the same period.
- P2Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Leverage Burden
Trip ifNet debt-to-equity ratio falls below 3.0 as reported in 2 consecutive filings.
- P4Return On Equity Sustainability
Trip ifROE sustains above 20% for 3 consecutive annual reporting periods, demonstrating return durability without a recognized moat.