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California Resources Corporatio (CRC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $62.31: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas... Read more

$62.31+13.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#32 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.07%
IncomeYield2.65%Payout37.77%sustainable
Stop $57.95Target $70.39(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$80.91+29.8%11 analysts
$70.39our TP
$62.31price
$80.91mean
$88

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $62.31: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — California Resources Corporatio

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Concentration risk — Customer: California markets
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA19.0
Profit Mgn-13.4%
ROE-14.4%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta0.96
Dividend2.65%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations are highly concentrated in California.'
  • HIGHCustomerCalifornia markets
    10-K Item 1A: 'We sell nearly all of our crude oil production into California markets.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Michael Helm appointed as VP-Finance and Controller (principal accounting officer) effective March 16, 2026. Previously led Berry Corporation's accounting function as Chief Accounting Officer since 2017. No reason cited for predecessor's departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.2
Moat
5.9
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
6.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 8.1%)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.8
Value Rank
8.6
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $57.98Resistance $70.44

Price Targets

$58
$70
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $62.31: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $57.95. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $70.39 (+13.0% upside). Prior stop was $57.95. Stop-loss: $57.95.

What are the risks of investing in CRC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Customer: California markets; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is CRC overvalued or undervalued?

California Resources Corporatio trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CRC?

17 analysts cover CRC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $81.

What does California Resources Corporatio do?California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States....

California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers. The company also provides Carbon TerraVault which builds, installs, operates, and maintains CO2 capture equipment, transportation assets, and storage facilities. In addition, it owns and operates power generation facilities, as well as smaller gas-fired power plants used to generate power for oil and natural gas operations. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Long Beach, California.

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