Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 9.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.64
CON · Why this verdict
Why Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Workers' compensation insurance carriers account for approximately 61% of revenue; a shift in carrier pricing discipline, a cyclical decline in workplace claims, or reimbursement rate compression from this concentrated payer group could materially impair revenue without an alternative customer base to offset the loss. Bear case | Workers' compensation-driven revenue should remain stable or grow; a decline in this segment's share would signal either involuntary revenue loss or welcome diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep partnerships with a concentrated group of major carriers can confer pricing certainty and lower customer acquisition costs, functioning as a structural advantage in a specialized niche. | ||
The RSI has reached 74 — in overbought territory — while implied volatility stands at 147%, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty even as the stock has pushed above its near-term ceiling; the combination raises the risk of a near-term pullback. Momentum breakdown | Over the next several months, RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range and implied volatility should compress as the stock consolidates; a sustained RSI above 80 with no pullback would require revisiting the overbought risk assessment. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume is accumulating (rising OBV) and the stock is trading above the 200-day moving average, suggesting the underlying trend remains intact; overbought RSI readings can persist well past the initial signal in genuine uptrends. | ||
The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target of $27.90, leaving -0.9% to the ceiling and a negative risk/reward ratio; the setup favors stepping aside rather than initiating or adding to a position at these levels. Price targets | Over the next 12 months, the share price should retreat toward the $27.90 resistance ceiling or below, and any analyst target revisions should provide at least 10% upside before the setup becomes attractive again. | →Stable |
| CounterIf a broader analyst community upgrades coverage with materially higher price targets — reflecting stronger-than-expected earnings growth — the resistance ceiling could be superseded and upside could re-open rapidly. | ||
Approximately 93% of revenue is derived from occupational health centers; any structural shift in employer workplace injury volumes, regulatory changes to occupational health reimbursement, or disruption to that single service vertical would directly impair the majority of the business with no alternative segments to absorb the loss. Bear case | The occupational health segment should sustain current mid-single-digit growth; failure to grow this segment or any material contraction in its revenue share would confirm the concentration thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep specialization within a single service category may reflect operational expertise and client switching costs that make the revenue stream more durable and defensible than its narrow focus suggests. | ||
Workers' compensation insurance carriers account for approximately 61% of revenue; a shift in carrier pricing discipline, a cyclical decline in workplace claims, or reimbursement rate compression from this concentrated payer group could materially impair revenue without an alternative customer base to offset the loss.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Workers' compensation-driven revenue should remain stable or grow; a decline in this segment's share would signal either involuntary revenue loss or welcome diversification.
CounterDeep partnerships with a concentrated group of major carriers can confer pricing certainty and lower customer acquisition costs, functioning as a structural advantage in a specialized niche.
The RSI has reached 74 — in overbought territory — while implied volatility stands at 147%, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty even as the stock has pushed above its near-term ceiling; the combination raises the risk of a near-term pullback.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Over the next several months, RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range and implied volatility should compress as the stock consolidates; a sustained RSI above 80 with no pullback would require revisiting the overbought risk assessment.
CounterVolume is accumulating (rising OBV) and the stock is trading above the 200-day moving average, suggesting the underlying trend remains intact; overbought RSI readings can persist well past the initial signal in genuine uptrends.
The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target of $27.90, leaving -0.9% to the ceiling and a negative risk/reward ratio; the setup favors stepping aside rather than initiating or adding to a position at these levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, the share price should retreat toward the $27.90 resistance ceiling or below, and any analyst target revisions should provide at least 10% upside before the setup becomes attractive again.
CounterIf a broader analyst community upgrades coverage with materially higher price targets — reflecting stronger-than-expected earnings growth — the resistance ceiling could be superseded and upside could re-open rapidly.
Approximately 93% of revenue is derived from occupational health centers; any structural shift in employer workplace injury volumes, regulatory changes to occupational health reimbursement, or disruption to that single service vertical would directly impair the majority of the business with no alternative segments to absorb the loss.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The occupational health segment should sustain current mid-single-digit growth; failure to grow this segment or any material contraction in its revenue share would confirm the concentration thesis.
CounterDeep specialization within a single service category may reflect operational expertise and client switching costs that make the revenue stream more durable and defensible than its narrow focus suggests.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Concentra has advanced above its near-term resistance ceiling with no upside remaining and a negative risk/reward, while two deep revenue concentration risks — a single service category (occupational health) accounting for 93% of revenue and a single payer class (workers' compensation carriers) supplying 61% — limit the margin of safety at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 47%
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 90)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,500,026 (0.159% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| debt equity | 0.3 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 78.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.94
Upside
-14.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.94 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.4, Sentiment at 7.0, and Growth at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Resistance Ceiling
Trip ifConsensus analyst price target rises above $32.00, creating more than 13% upside from current price and restoring a positive risk/reward geometry.
- P2Occupational Health Product Concentration
Trip ifOccupational health center revenue falls below 80% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful service diversification.
- P3Workers Comp Carrier Customer Concentration
Trip ifWorkers' compensation carrier revenue falls below 50% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling meaningful customer diversification.
- P4Overbought Momentum Elevated Implied Volatility
Trip ifShare price sustains above $30.00 for 3 consecutive months while RSI retreats below 60, confirming the overbought advance resolved without a meaningful correction.