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CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $73.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

CMS Energy is a Michigan-focused holding company whose principal subsidiary, Consumers Energy, provides electric service to 1.9 million customers and natural gas service to 1.8 million customers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula under MPSC regulation. Consolidated 2025 operating... Read more

$73.31+2.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#15 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-9.52%
IncomeYield3.11%(5y avg 2.99%)Payout60.79%
Stop $70.87Target $75.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$81.14+10.7%14 analysts
$75.11our TP
$73.31price
$81.14mean
$66
$88

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $73.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

About CMS Energy Corporation

CMS Energy Corporation generated $8.5 billion in consolidated operating revenue during 2025 through its Michigan-focused energy operations, with electric subsidiary Consumers Energy supplying customers via a generation mix of 41 percent natural gas, 20 percent coal, and the remainder renewables, hydro, and purchased power. Consumers serves 1.9 million electric customers and 1.8 million gas customers across Michigan's Lower Peninsula under MPSC and FERC jurisdiction.

Operating revenue divides across three segments: electric utility at $5.6 billion in 2025, gas utility at $2.5 billion, and NorthStar Clean Energy non-utility operations at $408 million. Rates for the regulated electric and gas businesses are set by the Michigan Public Service Commission under cost-of-service ratemaking and cannot be changed without regulatory authorization. Consumers' 2025 electric supply totaled 35,903 GWh, drawn from 5,940 MW of owned generation plus long-term power purchase agreements with future commitments estimated at $17.0 billion across 2026 through 2060. Firm gas transportation contracts with Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line Company and Trunkline Gas Company supply 34 percent of forecasted 2026 gas requirements, with the balance purchased through firm city-gate contracts. Michigan law caps alternative-supplier retail open access at 10 percent of Consumers' sales, a limit reached at year-end 2025.

Show full overview

Consumers retired the D.E. Karn coal units totaling 515 MW in 2023 and obtained MPSC approval to retire J.H. Campbell, 1,407 MW of nameplate capacity, but the J.H. Campbell retirement is subject to temporary extensions under emergency orders from the U.S. Secretary of Energy. Under those orders Consumers supplied 3,608 GWh of the 7,320 GWh generated by the units in 2025 into MISO, yet no FERC-approved MISO Tariff currently exists for recovery of compliance costs, and continued operation is not contemplated in current MPSC rates. Consumers targets 60-percent renewable energy by 2035 and 100-percent clean energy by 2040, backed by planned additions of up to 9,000 MW of solar and 4,000 MW of wind.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

From CMS Energy Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

Recent Developments — CMS Energy Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$22.6B
EV/EBITDA13.9
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta0.37
Dividend3.11%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.29bearish
IV34%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.53Resistance $76.64

Price Targets

$71
$75
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $73.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $70.87. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $75.11 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $70.87. Stop-loss: $70.87.

What are the risks of investing in CMS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.

Is CMS overvalued or undervalued?

CMS Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMS?

22 analysts cover CMS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $81.

What does CMS Energy Corporation do?CMS Energy is a Michigan-focused holding company whose principal subsidiary, Consumers Energy, provides electric...

CMS Energy is a Michigan-focused holding company whose principal subsidiary, Consumers Energy, provides electric service to 1.9 million customers and natural gas service to 1.8 million customers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula under MPSC regulation. Consolidated 2025 operating revenue was $8.5 billion, with cost-of-service ratemaking driving cash flow across an electric utility, a gas utility, and NorthStar Clean Energy, an independent power producer.

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