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CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommeHold5.6·$116.52
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Canadian Imperial Bank has produced four consecutive earnings beats with constructive technical momentum and a golden cross in place, but the stock has run to within 0.9% of its near-term price ceiling — a setup that rewards existing holders while making new capital deployment unattractive given the thin risk/reward ratio of 0.21-to-1.

Thesis pillars

  • Unbroken Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Constructive Technical Posture↓Deteriorating
  • Price At Near Term Ceiling→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme (CM) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $116.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, a diversified financial institution, provides various financial products and services to personal, business, public sector, and institutional clients in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Canadian... Read more

$116.52-11.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.61%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout40.12%sustainable
Stop $111.96Analyst target $102.73(reached)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst consensus$120.85+3.7%3 analysts with price targets
$116.52price
$120.85mean
$105
$129

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $116.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 3, 2026

Recent Developments — Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme

Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$105.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn33.7%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta1.23
Dividend2.61%
Analysts with ratings23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$100-14.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.08Resistance $119.73

Price Targets

A.Upside-11.8%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $116.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $102.73 reached (−11.8%), stop $111.96 (−4.1%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CM stock price target?

Analyst target $102.73 reached (−11.8% from $116.52); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $102.73 reached (−11.8%), stop $111.96 (−4.1%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $111.96.

What are the risks of investing in CM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is CM overvalued or undervalued?

Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CM?

23 analysts rate CM, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $121.

What does Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme do?Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, a diversified financial institution, provides various financial products and...

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, a diversified financial institution, provides various financial products and services to personal, business, public sector, and institutional clients in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Canadian Personal and Business Banking; Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management; U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management; Capital Markets and Direct Financial Services; and Corporate and Other segments. It offers checking, savings, agriculture, and business accounts; mortgages; business, car, education, home, and other loans; lines of credit and agriculture loans; and cash management, small business financing, and overdraft protection services. The company also provides investment and insurance services; healthcare banking; credit cards; private banking, wealth planning, investment management, and estate planning and trust; and ATMs, as well as mobile, online, and global money and wire transfer services. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,) · SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · BNY (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · HSBC (HSBC Holdings, plc.)
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