Value
9.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
CGAU · Why this verdict
Why Centerra Gold (CGAU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 9.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 0% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 62% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.0%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 125.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.81
Upside
-10.3%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.54>1.3, MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.81 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.7, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7, Technical at 4.1, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.