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The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

The Carlyle Group manages $477B in AUM across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit ($211B AUM), and Carlyle AlpInvest ($102B AUM), with 2,500+ employees in 27 offices on four continents. Revenue comes from management fees and performance allocations from 3,200+... Read more

$47.81+16.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#26 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $44.46Target $55.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$61.88+29.4%16 analysts
$55.69our TP
$47.81price
$61.88mean
$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$17.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth93.9%
Beta2.04
Dividend2.93%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$38-21.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
3.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $45.28Resistance $53.85

Price Targets

$44
$56
A.Upside+16.5%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $44.46. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.69 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $44.46. Stop-loss: $44.46.

What are the risks of investing in CG?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is CG overvalued or undervalued?

The Carlyle Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CG?

25 analysts cover CG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $62.

What does The Carlyle Group Inc. do?The Carlyle Group manages $477B in AUM across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit ($211B AUM), and...

The Carlyle Group manages $477B in AUM across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit ($211B AUM), and Carlyle AlpInvest ($102B AUM), with 2,500+ employees in 27 offices on four continents. Revenue comes from management fees and performance allocations from 3,200+ active carry fund investors in 87 countries.

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