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The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $45.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Carlyle is a global alternative asset manager with $477B in AUM across Global Private Equity ($164B, 34%), Global Credit ($211B, 44%), and Carlyle AlpInvest ($102B, 21%) segments, serving 3,200+ carry fund investors from 87 countries. Revenue from management fees and performance... Read more

$45.58+19.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#89 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.08%(5y avg 3.06%)Payout95.89%at-risk
Stop $43.33Target $54.51(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$60.56+32.9%16 analysts
$54.51our TP
$45.58price
$60.56mean
$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $45.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — The Carlyle Group Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.2
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$16.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.8%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth-94.1%
Beta1.89
Dividend3.08%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$90+97.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
3.6
Value Rank
3.8
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $44.67Resistance $52.50

Price Targets

$43
$55
A.Upside+19.6%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $45.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $43.33. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.51 (+19.9% upside). Prior stop was $43.33. Stop-loss: $43.33.

What are the risks of investing in CG?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is CG overvalued or undervalued?

The Carlyle Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.2 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CG?

24 analysts cover CG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.

What does The Carlyle Group Inc. do?Carlyle is a global alternative asset manager with $477B in AUM across Global Private Equity ($164B, 34%), Global...

Carlyle is a global alternative asset manager with $477B in AUM across Global Private Equity ($164B, 34%), Global Credit ($211B, 44%), and Carlyle AlpInvest ($102B, 21%) segments, serving 3,200+ carry fund investors from 87 countries. Revenue from management fees and performance allocations; 770+ investment professionals in 27 offices across four continents.

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