Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.64
CG · Why this verdict
Why The Carlyle Group (CG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 3.9 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.75
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Critical news event: bankruptcy..
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.55
Upside
+16.7%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.82>1.3
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Critical news event: bankruptcy.. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.0 (strongest) and would otherwise support a different read.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.0, Value at 6.6, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.9, Technical at 3.1, and Catalyst at 4.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.