Commerce Bancshares is a high-quality regional bank with a strong earnings track record and institutional buying support, but the stock has essentially reached analyst consensus fair value, leaving a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.08-to-1 that does not justify new capital at this level — patience for a meaningful pullback is the more prudent posture.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Discipline→Stable
- Quality Margins Financial Health→Stable
- Momentum Volume Accumulation↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Negative momentum.
Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-headquartered bank holding company with $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8 billion in loans, and $25.6 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 140 branches primarily in Missouri, Kansas, and central Illinois. Net interest... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
About Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
Commerce Bancshares reported $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8 billion in loans, and $25.6 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 140 branch facilities primarily in Missouri, Kansas, and central Illinois. Net interest income represented 63% of total 2025 revenue. Commercial, Retail Banking, and Wealth segments contributed 48%, 28%, and 24% of total segment pre-tax income respectively. The holding company is primarily regulated by the Federal Reserve Board under the Bank Holding Company Act; Commerce Bank is subject to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Missouri Division of Finance.
Commerce Bank generates revenue through net interest income on its $17.8 billion loan portfolio and fee-based income across three segments. Commercial provides corporate lending, merchant and commercial bank card products, payment solutions, leasing, and institutional brokerage services. Retail Banking covers the branch network, consumer installment lending, personal mortgage banking, and card activities. Wealth serves personal and institutional clients with trust, estate planning, and discretionary investment management. The bank held approximately 10% of the deposit market share in Kansas City and approximately 7% in St. Louis, its two largest markets, as of the 2025 10-K. On January 1, 2026, Commerce completed the acquisition of FineMark Holdings in an all-stock transaction—13 offices in Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina; $2.7 billion in loans; $8.7 billion in assets under administration—extending the Wealth segment into southeastern U.S. markets.
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The 10-K explicitly contrasts Commerce Bancshares' geographic profile with more geographically diversified peers: the company provides financial services primarily throughout Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, with growing presences in Texas, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Tennessee. A prolonged economic downturn in those core Midwest states could materially affect financial condition. The company carried a net unrealized loss of $646.8 million in its available-for-sale debt securities at December 31, 2025—a residual from the 2022–2023 rate-hike cycle—and the Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts during 2025, with further policy trajectory uncertain.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Commerce Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why Commerce Bancshares Shares Are Sinking Today - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Bank of America Corp DE Buys 398,670 Shares of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. $CBSH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS How Commerce Bancshares' (CBSH) Finance Leadership Shift Could Shape Its Earnings Story - Sahm — Sahm neutral
- NEWS Amundi Has $558,000 Stake in Commerce Bancshares, Inc. $CBSH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Commerce (CBSH) Q1 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-09-24T04:36:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicMissouri, Kansas, and central Illinois10-K Item 1A: 'the Company provides financial services primarily throughout the states of Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-30Item 5.02MEDIUMPaul A. Steiner, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, resigned effective July 7, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. No disagreement with Company cited. Successor named: Steven A. Brandjord, effective May 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-28Item 5.02LOWSteven A. Brandjord appointed Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 15, 2026. Previously announced March 30, 2026 as successor to outgoing CAO Paul Steiner.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWBenjamin F. Rassieur III retired from the Board of Directors effective May 7, 2026, due to the mandatory retirement requirements of the Company. Board member since 1997; former Audit and Risk Committee chairman. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $57.90 (+4.0%), stop $54.00 (−3.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $57.90 (+4.0% upside). Target $57.90 (+4.0%), stop $54.00 (−3.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $54.00.
Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Negative momentum.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
16 analysts cover CBSH with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $67.
What does Commerce Bancshares, Inc. do?Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-headquartered bank holding company with $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8...
Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-headquartered bank holding company with $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8 billion in loans, and $25.6 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 140 branches primarily in Missouri, Kansas, and central Illinois. Net interest income represented 63% of total 2025 revenue; three segments—Commercial (48%), Retail Banking (28%), and Wealth (24%)—drove pre-tax income.