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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $52.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Commerce Bancshares is a $32.9B-asset bank holding company serving Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado through 140 branches plus select commercial/wealth offices in 11 other states. Three segments: Commercial (48% of 2025 segment pre-tax income), Retail... Read more

$52.24-0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#109 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.12%(5y avg 1.75%)Payout26.38%sustainable
Stop $50.20Target $52.03(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$58.69+12.3%8 analysts
$52.03our TP
$52.24price
$58.69mean
$69

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $52.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Commerce Bancshares, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.3%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth17.3%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.12%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV33%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.6
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.5
Support Resistance
2.9
52w Position
6.3
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.05Resistance $53.09

Price Targets

$50
$52
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBSH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $52.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $52.03 (-0.4%), stop $50.20 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CBSH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.03 (-0.3% upside). Target $52.03 (-0.4%), stop $50.20 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $50.20.

What are the risks of investing in CBSH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CBSH overvalued or undervalued?

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CBSH?

14 analysts cover CBSH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $59.

What does Commerce Bancshares, Inc. do?Commerce Bancshares is a $32.9B-asset bank holding company serving Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and...

Commerce Bancshares is a $32.9B-asset bank holding company serving Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado through 140 branches plus select commercial/wealth offices in 11 other states. Three segments: Commercial (48% of 2025 segment pre-tax income), Retail Banking (28%), and Wealth (24%). Acquired FineMark Holdings (Florida, Arizona, South Carolina) on January 1, 2026.

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