Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸Attractively valued
CBSH · Why this verdict
Why Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Commerce Bancshares is an attractively valued regional bank (forward P/E 12.0x) with strong margins and institutional accumulation, but the price is only 1.7% below the analyst target, leaving little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commerce Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 12.0x, which the data calls attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Earnings hold up so the multiple stays near 12x or lower over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth is weak (earnings growth score 3.4), so a cheap multiple may reflect limited growth rather than mispricing. | ||
The bank earns strong margins of 31% and a superior ROE versus peers, with a 7/9 Piotroski score. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 28% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAbsolute ROE scores only 5.0 out of 10, and bank margins can compress if deposit costs rise. | ||
Institutions are accumulating while insider selling is negligible at $127,499 (0.002% of market cap). Insider breakdown | Institutional holdings keep rising and insider selling stays under 0.01% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling, suggesting distribution that contradicts the accumulation reading. | ||
The price of $55.06 is only 1.7% below the $56.02 analyst target, against 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.35. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised enough to restore at least 10% upside. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets usually follow earnings, and steady beats could lift them, so thin upside today may not persist. | ||
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, but the average surprise is only 4.98% and the latest quarter was in line. Earnings track record | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest quarter's surprise was just 0.47%, suggesting beats are narrowing as comparisons toughen. | ||
Commerce Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 12.0x, which the data calls attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings hold up so the multiple stays near 12x or lower over 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth is weak (earnings growth score 3.4), so a cheap multiple may reflect limited growth rather than mispricing.
The bank earns strong margins of 31% and a superior ROE versus peers, with a 7/9 Piotroski score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 28% over the next four quarters.
CounterAbsolute ROE scores only 5.0 out of 10, and bank margins can compress if deposit costs rise.
Institutions are accumulating while insider selling is negligible at $127,499 (0.002% of market cap).
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional holdings keep rising and insider selling stays under 0.01% of market cap.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling, suggesting distribution that contradicts the accumulation reading.
The price of $55.06 is only 1.7% below the $56.02 analyst target, against 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.35.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised enough to restore at least 10% upside.
CounterTargets usually follow earnings, and steady beats could lift them, so thin upside today may not persist.
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, but the average surprise is only 4.98% and the latest quarter was in line.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter's surprise was just 0.47%, suggesting beats are narrowing as comparisons toughen.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.48 (n=3)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $77,469 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Growth at 4.7, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from the current 12.0x without a rise in earnings growth.
- P2Strong Margins Superior Roe
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 31%.
- P3Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.05% of market cap from the current 0.002%.
- P4Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 10% while upside to the analyst target stays below 3%.
- P5Steady Small Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.