Value
7.7/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| p ocf | 9.4 |
- ▸P/OCF: 6.0x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
CBL · Why this verdict
Why CBL & Associates Properties, In (CBL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company trades at approximately 5.5x operating cash flow, the relevant profitability proxy for retail REITs, and screens as attractively valued relative to its peer group. Analyst consensus implies roughly 20% upside from current levels, giving the valuation thesis a fundamental anchor beyond the multiple alone. Valuation breakdown | Operating cash flow per share grows at least 5% over the next four quarters, supporting multiple expansion toward peer medians. | →Stable |
| CounterLow absolute multiples in retail REITs often persist or compress further when underlying revenue growth is weak; investors tend to discount the trajectory rather than anchor on current cash flow yield, making a cheap multiple alone an insufficient catalyst. | ||
Debt-to-equity leverage stands at 5.4x, well above typical levels for a retail property owner, creating meaningful interest expense pressure and limiting the company's financial flexibility. This leverage has been explicitly flagged as a negative factor in the investment case. Bear case | Net debt-to-EBITDA falls below 4x over the next 6 quarters through asset sales, cash flow paydown, or equity issuance. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage in REITs is partly structural given the capital-intensive nature of property ownership; if interest rates decline, the debt burden eases and the leveraged equity stake benefits disproportionately. | ||
The company posts a 51% return on equity, 30% operating and net margins, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 7 out of 9 — strong quality indicators for a retail REIT. Free cash flow conversion is also above average relative to the sector. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 35% and operating margin sustains above 25% for 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 51% return on equity in a 5.4x leveraged REIT reflects the arithmetic amplification of debt rather than purely operational excellence; at lower leverage, the underlying earning power would be substantially more modest, and a refinancing at higher rates would compress the headline ROE significantly. | ||
With the stock just 2.2% below the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.36, the near-term setup is unfavorable for deploying new capital. The current entry geometry does not meet a constructive asymmetry threshold. Price targets | Analyst target upgrades or a stock pullback widens the potential upside to at least 15% from the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is thin at just two analysts, meaning targets are occasionally stale; a re-rating event such as an accretive acquisition or a meaningful deleveraging announcement could push consensus targets materially higher. | ||
The company trades at approximately 5.5x operating cash flow, the relevant profitability proxy for retail REITs, and screens as attractively valued relative to its peer group. Analyst consensus implies roughly 20% upside from current levels, giving the valuation thesis a fundamental anchor beyond the multiple alone.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating cash flow per share grows at least 5% over the next four quarters, supporting multiple expansion toward peer medians.
CounterLow absolute multiples in retail REITs often persist or compress further when underlying revenue growth is weak; investors tend to discount the trajectory rather than anchor on current cash flow yield, making a cheap multiple alone an insufficient catalyst.
Debt-to-equity leverage stands at 5.4x, well above typical levels for a retail property owner, creating meaningful interest expense pressure and limiting the company's financial flexibility. This leverage has been explicitly flagged as a negative factor in the investment case.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Net debt-to-EBITDA falls below 4x over the next 6 quarters through asset sales, cash flow paydown, or equity issuance.
CounterHigh leverage in REITs is partly structural given the capital-intensive nature of property ownership; if interest rates decline, the debt burden eases and the leveraged equity stake benefits disproportionately.
The company posts a 51% return on equity, 30% operating and net margins, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 7 out of 9 — strong quality indicators for a retail REIT. Free cash flow conversion is also above average relative to the sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 35% and operating margin sustains above 25% for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterA 51% return on equity in a 5.4x leveraged REIT reflects the arithmetic amplification of debt rather than purely operational excellence; at lower leverage, the underlying earning power would be substantially more modest, and a refinancing at higher rates would compress the headline ROE significantly.
With the stock just 2.2% below the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.36, the near-term setup is unfavorable for deploying new capital. The current entry geometry does not meet a constructive asymmetry threshold.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst target upgrades or a stock pullback widens the potential upside to at least 15% from the current price.
CounterAnalyst coverage is thin at just two analysts, meaning targets are occasionally stale; a re-rating event such as an accretive acquisition or a meaningful deleveraging announcement could push consensus targets materially higher.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBL trades at roughly 5.5x operating cash flow — among the most attractively valued names in its retail REIT peer group — with a 51% return on equity and 30% operating margins, but 5.4x debt-to-equity leverage, weak revenue growth, and only 2.2% headroom to the analyst price target leave limited near-term return potential.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 9.5 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 51%
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $49,897,765 (3.064% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 127%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 475.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:3.06%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.25
Upside
-3.1%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.44>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:3.06%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Quality at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Growth at 3.2, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Reit Cash Flow Valuation
Trip ifOperating cash flow per share declines for 2 consecutive quarters (growth falls below 0%).
- P2High Leverage Balance Sheet Risk
Trip ifNet debt-to-EBITDA falls below 4x for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Strong Reit Quality Metrics
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Near Target Limited Near Term Upside
Trip ifAnalyst price target upgrades push consensus more than 20% above current price, implying a target above $57.