Value
7.8/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| p ocf | 9.5 |
- ▸P/OCF: 5.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
CBL · Why this verdict
Why CBL & Associates Properties, In (CBL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBL is a cheap retail REIT (P/OCF 5.5x, 5.0% yield) with excellent ROE, but extreme insider selling (4.657% of market cap), thin 6.2% upside and earnings due in 4 days weigh on the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insiders sold $72,635,852, or 4.657% of market cap, a heavy selling signal that conflicts with the attractive valuation. Insider breakdown | Insider selling fades and net sales fall under 1% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge sales may reflect planned liquidity or index-related events rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
CBL trades at a price-to-operating-cash-flow of 5.5x, a proxy for funds from operations, and the data calls it attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Operating cash flow holds so the low multiple persists over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRetail REITs often trade cheaply for structural reasons such as declining mall traffic, so a low multiple may be a value trap. | ||
CBL reports an excellent 62% ROE and strong 37% margins, with a Rule of 40 score of 42. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 30% through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high ROE on a small equity base is inflated by leverage (D/E 4.8) and one-off gains, so it may not be repeatable. | ||
The price of $50.41 is only 6.2% below the $53.55 analyst target, against 6.7% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.93. Upside pct | Analyst targets rise or the price pulls back enough to restore at least 15% upside. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (2 analysts), so the target may be stale and understate recovery potential. | ||
The REIT carries a leverage penalty from D/E of 4.8 while paying a 5.0% dividend yield scored 8.5 for safety. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage stays intact and leverage does not rise above current levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh leverage plus an elevated put/call ratio of 1.86 and 95% implied volatility show the market pricing meaningful downside risk. | ||
Insiders sold $72,635,852, or 4.657% of market cap, a heavy selling signal that conflicts with the attractive valuation.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades and net sales fall under 1% of market cap.
CounterLarge sales may reflect planned liquidity or index-related events rather than a negative view of the business.
CBL trades at a price-to-operating-cash-flow of 5.5x, a proxy for funds from operations, and the data calls it attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating cash flow holds so the low multiple persists over 12 months.
CounterRetail REITs often trade cheaply for structural reasons such as declining mall traffic, so a low multiple may be a value trap.
CBL reports an excellent 62% ROE and strong 37% margins, with a Rule of 40 score of 42.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 30% through the next four quarters.
CounterA very high ROE on a small equity base is inflated by leverage (D/E 4.8) and one-off gains, so it may not be repeatable.
The price of $50.41 is only 6.2% below the $53.55 analyst target, against 6.7% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.93.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise or the price pulls back enough to restore at least 15% upside.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (2 analysts), so the target may be stale and understate recovery potential.
The REIT carries a leverage penalty from D/E of 4.8 while paying a 5.0% dividend yield scored 8.5 for safety.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage stays intact and leverage does not rise above current levels.
CounterHigh leverage plus an elevated put/call ratio of 1.86 and 95% implied volatility show the market pricing meaningful downside risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.9 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.3 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 62%
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸Rule of 40: 42 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $72,635,852 (4.647% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 1.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 0.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.73
- ▸High IV: 104%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:4.65%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.05
Upside
+6.6%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Real Estate sector out of favor, value=7.8
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.42>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot, INSIDER:4.65%=EXTREME, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Quality at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Technical at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Ffo Valuation
Trip ifPrice to operating cash flow exceeds 9x from the current 5.5x.
- P2High Roe Strong Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 37%.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 6% of market cap from the current 4.657%.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 0% while downside to the stop exceeds 10%.
- P5Leverage And Dividend Durability
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 6x from the current 4.8.