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Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1848.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Comfort Systems USA is a US mechanical and electrical contractor providing HVAC, plumbing, piping, and electrical installation/maintenance through 50 operating units in 142 cities. Revenue is 73.3% mechanical and 26.7% electrical services; the technology sector accounts for 45%... Read more

$1848.60+9.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#25 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.57%
IncomeYield0.13%(5y avg 0.39%)Payout6.50%sustainable
Stop $1731.29Target $2031.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$1991.20+7.7%5 analysts
$2031.72our TP
$1848.60price
$1991.20mean
$2050

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1848.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Comfort Systems USA, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative news sentiment (-0.60)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)57.5
P/E (Fwd)38.0
Mkt Cap$70.1B
EV/EBITDA41.9
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE53.3%
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta1.71
Dividend0.13%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertechnology sector45%
    10-K Item 1: 'Technology| ​| 45.0| %'
  • LOWCustomertop customer13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'in 2025, one customer represented approximately 12.8% of our consolidated revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
9.2
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.1
Forward Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
5.6
Peg Ratio
7.1
Forward P/E: 38.0xPEG: 0.98
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1661.26Resistance $2073.18

Price Targets

$1731
$2032
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FIX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1848.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $1731.29. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2031.72 (+9.1% upside). Prior stop was $1731.29. Stop-loss: $1731.29.

What are the risks of investing in FIX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative news sentiment (-0.60).

Is FIX overvalued or undervalued?

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. trades at a P/E of 57.5 (forward 38.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FIX?

13 analysts cover FIX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $1991.

What does Comfort Systems USA, Inc. do?Comfort Systems USA is a US mechanical and electrical contractor providing HVAC, plumbing, piping, and electrical...

Comfort Systems USA is a US mechanical and electrical contractor providing HVAC, plumbing, piping, and electrical installation/maintenance through 50 operating units in 142 cities. Revenue is 73.3% mechanical and 26.7% electrical services; the technology sector accounts for 45% of 2025 revenue, with $11.94B in contracted backlog as of year-end 2025.

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