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FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.Sell5.1·$1841.10-0.15%
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Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1841.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Comfort Systems USA is a US mechanical and electrical contractor providing HVAC, plumbing, piping, and electrical installation/maintenance through 50 operating units in 142 cities. Revenue is 73.3% mechanical and 26.7% electrical services; the technology sector accounts for 45%... Read more

$1841.10+9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#24 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.70%
IncomeYield0.14%(5y avg 0.38%)Payout6.50%sustainable
Stop $1722.39Target $2031.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$2026.00+10.0%6 analysts
$2031.72our TP
$1841.10price
$2026.00mean
$2200

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1841.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.2
P/E (Fwd)34.7
Mkt Cap$64.9B
EV/EBITDA38.8
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE53.3%
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta1.67
Dividend0.14%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.01bearish
IV79%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertechnology sector45%
    10-K Item 1: 'Technology| ​| 45.0| %'
  • LOWCustomertop customer13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'in 2025, one customer represented approximately 12.8% of our consolidated revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
9.2
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.7
Volume
2.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1750.00Resistance $2073.18

Price Targets

$1722
$2032
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.8% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FIX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1841.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $1722.39. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2031.72 (+9.7% upside). Prior stop was $1722.39. Stop-loss: $1722.39.

What are the risks of investing in FIX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is FIX overvalued or undervalued?

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.2 (forward 34.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FIX?

14 analysts cover FIX with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $2026.

What does Comfort Systems USA, Inc. do?Comfort Systems USA is a US mechanical and electrical contractor providing HVAC, plumbing, piping, and electrical...

Comfort Systems USA is a US mechanical and electrical contractor providing HVAC, plumbing, piping, and electrical installation/maintenance through 50 operating units in 142 cities. Revenue is 73.3% mechanical and 26.7% electrical services; the technology sector accounts for 45% of 2025 revenue, with $11.94B in contracted backlog as of year-end 2025.

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