Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CAL · Why this verdict
Why Caleres (CAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Caleres trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but negative cash conversion, high short interest and weak momentum keep quality below the engine's floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +14.8% and the latest quarter 27% above estimate. Earnings | EPS continues to meet or beat estimates in the next two reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOver the last 12 quarters there were 6 misses, some of them 30% to 55% below estimates, so the record is inconsistent. | ||
Earnings quality shows a red flag at -35% free cash flow to net income, and no competitive moat, which lowers quality to 3.1. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests the cash conversion problem may be due to working-capital timing. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.5x and a PEG of 0.05, the shares are attractively valued relative to earnings. Valuation breakdown | Earnings are delivered so the forward multiple stays below 8x. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low multiple may signal that the market expects earnings to fall in a competitive apparel-retail market. | ||
Short interest is 13% and momentum at 2.8 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, so sentiment is bearish. Key risks | Short interest declines as results are reported. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze after consecutive earnings beats. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with high yield but unsafe coverage and a safety score of 6.7. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained without a cut. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings beats and a low payout against a 5.5x forward multiple may leave the dividend adequately covered. | ||
The company beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +14.8% and the latest quarter 27% above estimate.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to meet or beat estimates in the next two reports.
CounterOver the last 12 quarters there were 6 misses, some of them 30% to 55% below estimates, so the record is inconsistent.
Earnings quality shows a red flag at -35% free cash flow to net income, and no competitive moat, which lowers quality to 3.1.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion turns positive.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests the cash conversion problem may be due to working-capital timing.
At a forward P/E of 5.5x and a PEG of 0.05, the shares are attractively valued relative to earnings.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings are delivered so the forward multiple stays below 8x.
CounterA very low multiple may signal that the market expects earnings to fall in a competitive apparel-retail market.
Short interest is 13% and momentum at 2.8 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, so sentiment is bearish.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines as results are reported.
CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze after consecutive earnings beats.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with high yield but unsafe coverage and a safety score of 6.7.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained without a cut.
CounterEarnings beats and a low payout against a 5.5x forward multiple may leave the dividend adequately covered.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -35% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:46d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.33
Upside
+11.6%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.3<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.33.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Catalyst at 6.7, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Growth at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 9x from the current 5.5x.
- P2Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Poor Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income conversion exceeds 80% from the current -35%.
- P4High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% from the current 13%.
- P5Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 8.0 from the current 6.7.