Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CAL · Why this verdict
Why Caleres (CAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CAL trades at a deep discount with a favorable stated risk/reward, but quality sits below the engine's floor with an earnings-quality red flag, momentum has failed to confirm, and an imminent earnings print lands alongside a recent leadership change.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CAL screens as attractively valued, with the value notes citing a 5.5x forward P/E and a 0.05 PEG ratio. Valuation breakdown | The value dimension score (currently 9.0) should hold as the stock re-rates toward the analyst target over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterQuality below the engine's floor and a red-flagged earnings-quality metric could keep the multiple depressed despite the cheap headline valuation. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's floor (2.6 vs. a 4.0 minimum), with the quality notes flagging an earnings-quality red flag of -487% FCF-to-net-income. Quality breakdown | Quality score should stay at or below 4.0 while the FCF-to-net-income red flag persists over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests underlying balance-sheet and operational fundamentals are healthier than the earnings-quality flag implies. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed at 3.2 against a 4.5 threshold, though the momentum notes frame the current RSI of 32 as an uptrend pullback and buy opportunity while price stays above its 200-day moving average. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months if the pullback resolves as a buy opportunity. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume noted alongside the pullback suggests weakening participation that could turn the pullback into a deeper decline. | ||
The engine flags a recent officer departure/appointment alongside earnings arriving in just 11 days, both inside its soft-warning window. Gates warning | Earnings results and any leadership transition should pass without a negative surprise or governance disruption over the next quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe earnings history shows 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, including a -55% surprise, so the upcoming print carries real downside risk independent of the leadership change. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate passed with a 1.62 ratio, and the price sits roughly 15.8% below the analyst target with a favorable stated risk/reward. Estimated upside | The asymmetry ratio should stay at or above 1.5 and the discount to target should narrow over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated implied volatility (94%) and 13% short interest suggest the market is pricing meaningful downside risk that could prevent the gap from closing. | ||
CAL screens as attractively valued, with the value notes citing a 5.5x forward P/E and a 0.05 PEG ratio.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value dimension score (currently 9.0) should hold as the stock re-rates toward the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality below the engine's floor and a red-flagged earnings-quality metric could keep the multiple depressed despite the cheap headline valuation.
Quality sits below the engine's floor (2.6 vs. a 4.0 minimum), with the quality notes flagging an earnings-quality red flag of -487% FCF-to-net-income.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should stay at or below 4.0 while the FCF-to-net-income red flag persists over the next 12 months.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests underlying balance-sheet and operational fundamentals are healthier than the earnings-quality flag implies.
The engine's momentum gate failed at 3.2 against a 4.5 threshold, though the momentum notes frame the current RSI of 32 as an uptrend pullback and buy opportunity while price stays above its 200-day moving average.
Tripped↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months if the pullback resolves as a buy opportunity.
CounterFalling on-balance volume noted alongside the pullback suggests weakening participation that could turn the pullback into a deeper decline.
The engine flags a recent officer departure/appointment alongside earnings arriving in just 11 days, both inside its soft-warning window.
↑ImprovingGates warning
- Expectation
- Earnings results and any leadership transition should pass without a negative surprise or governance disruption over the next quarter.
CounterThe earnings history shows 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, including a -55% surprise, so the upcoming print carries real downside risk independent of the leadership change.
The engine's asymmetry gate passed with a 1.62 ratio, and the price sits roughly 15.8% below the analyst target with a favorable stated risk/reward.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay at or above 1.5 and the discount to target should narrow over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated implied volatility (94%) and 13% short interest suggest the market is pricing meaningful downside risk that could prevent the gap from closing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -35% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.65 (n=10)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.7 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.30
Upside
+15.5%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.3<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.30.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Sentiment at 7.6, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Growth at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiple
Trip ifValue dimension score falls below 5.0 from the current 9.0.
- P2Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.6, clearing the engine's floor.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure PullbackTripped
Trip ifPrice closes more than 5% below the 200-day moving average, invalidating the pullback-buy read.
- P4Csuite Change Earnings Proximity Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% at the next earnings print.
- P5Positive Asymmetry To Target
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5, reversing the current 1.62 reading.