Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CAL · Why this verdict
Why Caleres (CAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Caleres trades at a low 5.8x forward P/E with a recent earnings recovery, but below-floor quality (3.1 vs 4.0), negative cash conversion and a yield-trap warning limit confidence in the cheap valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality of 3.1 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and thin net margin. Bear case | Quality score should rise above 4.0 as margins improve over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 shows underlying financial health is better than the quality score implies. | ||
The stock is attractively valued at 5.8x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.05. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings should hold so the forward multiple stays below 8x as price rises. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low multiple on a small-cap retailer ($0.4B) can signal expected earnings declines, making it a value trap. | ||
Earnings quality shows a red flag, with free cash flow at -35% of net income. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income by the next fiscal year-end. | →Stable |
| CounterSeasonal inventory build in apparel retail depresses cash flow temporarily and reverses in the holiday quarter. | ||
Earnings are recovering, with 3 beats and 1 miss in the last 4 quarters, but the prior 4 included 3 misses of more than 35%. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates again at the report due 2026-12-10, with next-quarter revenue near $802M. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats came against sharply lowered estimates, and revenue of $695M is below the $790M from a year-ago quarter. | ||
The dividend carries yield-trap risk: a high yield flagged as unsafe against weak cash flow. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety should improve with payout covered by free cash flow over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap valuation and the golden-cross breakout suggest the market may already be pricing a recovery. | ||
Business quality of 3.1 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and thin net margin.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 4.0 as margins improve over 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 shows underlying financial health is better than the quality score implies.
The stock is attractively valued at 5.8x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.05.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings should hold so the forward multiple stays below 8x as price rises.
CounterA very low multiple on a small-cap retailer ($0.4B) can signal expected earnings declines, making it a value trap.
Earnings quality shows a red flag, with free cash flow at -35% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income by the next fiscal year-end.
CounterSeasonal inventory build in apparel retail depresses cash flow temporarily and reverses in the holiday quarter.
Earnings are recovering, with 3 beats and 1 miss in the last 4 quarters, but the prior 4 included 3 misses of more than 35%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again at the report due 2026-12-10, with next-quarter revenue near $802M.
CounterBeats came against sharply lowered estimates, and revenue of $695M is below the $790M from a year-ago quarter.
The dividend carries yield-trap risk: a high yield flagged as unsafe against weak cash flow.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety should improve with payout covered by free cash flow over 12 months.
CounterA cheap valuation and the golden-cross breakout suggest the market may already be pricing a recovery.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -35% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.87
Upside
+9.5%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.87.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Technical at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Momentum at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from current 5.8x.
- P2Below Floor Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 from current 3.1 over 4 quarters.
- P3Negative Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below -50% of net income from current -35%.
- P4Earnings Recovery Uneven
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDividend cut of more than 25% is announced.