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CAE Inc. (CAE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth.

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense... Read more

$25.82+10.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#37 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $24.52Target $28.49(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$33.52+29.8%2 analysts
$28.49our TP
$25.82price
$33.52mean
$34

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.7/10
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.2
P/E (Fwd)28.0
Mkt Cap$8.2B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn7.7%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta1.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.17bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
5.4
Value Rank
7.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.4
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.93Resistance $28.20

Price Targets

$25
$28
A.Upside+10.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $24.52. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.49 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $24.52. Stop-loss: $24.52.

What are the risks of investing in CAE?

Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is CAE overvalued or undervalued?

CAE Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 28.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAE?

18 analysts cover CAE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $34.

What does CAE Inc. do?CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada,...

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense and Security. The Civil Aviation segment offers training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, ground personnel, and air traffic controllers in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; a range of flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services, as well as airline operations digital solutions. The Defense and Security segment operates as a training and simulation provider that delivers platform-independent solutions to enable and enhance force readiness and security for defense forces, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), government agencies, and public safety organizations. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in 1993. CAE Inc. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.

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