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CAE Inc. (CAE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $25.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.32. Engine's entry $25.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense... Read more

$26.32+10.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#39 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.72%
Entry $25.23(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $24.01Target $28.29(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$33.29+26.5%2 analysts
$28.29our TP
$26.32price
$33.29mean
$34

Wait for pullback to $25.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.32. Engine's entry $25.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — CAE Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.6
P/E (Fwd)29.2
Mkt Cap$8.5B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn7.7%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta1.02
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
5.0
Value Rank
7.7
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.93Resistance $27.31

Price Targets

$24
$25
$28
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $25.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.32. Engine's entry $25.23 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $28.29 (+7.5%), stop $24.01 (−9.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the CAE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.29 (+10.2% upside). Target $28.29 (+7.5%), stop $24.01 (−9.6%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $24.01.

What are the risks of investing in CAE?

Thin upside margin: 7.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is CAE overvalued or undervalued?

CAE Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.6 (forward 29.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CAE?

18 analysts cover CAE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $33.

What does CAE Inc. do?CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada,...

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. It operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense and Security. The Civil Aviation segment offers training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, ground personnel, and air traffic controllers in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; a range of flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services, as well as airline operations digital solutions. The Defense and Security segment operates as a training and simulation provider that delivers platform-independent solutions to enable and enhance force readiness and security for defense forces, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), government agencies, and public safety organizations. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in 1993. CAE Inc. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.

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