BZH faces a sharp revenue decline and quality-floor breach that leave the modeled risk/reward deeply negative, even as near-term technicals show unusual resilience.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Floor And Declining Revenue↓Deteriorating
- Material Insider Selling↓Deteriorating
- Target Reached Large Negative Upside↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 13, 2025· older than 90 days
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.48: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.87; Below-average business quality.
Homes is a nationally recognized homebuilder committed to building homes and communities designed with the intention of inspiring sustainable and healthier living. With personalized options and expert guidance, we empower homebuyers with competitive mortgage choices and energy... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.48: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.87; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 23, 2026Recent Developments — Beazer Homes USA, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 20, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.02: On the Closing Date, in connection with the consummation of the Merger, all outstanding obligations due under the Credit Agreement, dated as of October 13, 2022 (as amended, restated or otherwise modified from time to time, the "Credit Agreement"), by and among the Company, the lenders and issuin...
- 8K Oct 20, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.01: **(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)** | | **(Commission File Number)** | | **(IRS Employer Identification No.)** **2002 Summit Boulevard , 15th Floor** **Atlanta , Georgia 30319** **(Address of Principal Executive Offices)** **( 770) 829-3700** **(Registrant's telephone number, inclu...
- 8K Oct 20, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: **(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)** | | **(Commission File Number)** | | **(IRS Employer Identification No.)** **2002 Summit Boulevard , 15th Floor** **Atlanta , Georgia 30319** **(Address of Principal Executive Offices)** **( 770) 829-3700** **(Registrant's telephone number, inclu...
Latest news
- NEWS Dream Finders Homes Commences Private Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation for Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Notes — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS President Donald J. Trump Decreases Housing Costs For Americans; Executive Order To Cut Mortgage Costs, Eliminate Qualif — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Dream Finders Homes Completes $2.2 Billion All-Cash Purchase of Beazer Homes — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Removed from S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Beazer Homes Says Stockholders Approve Merger With Dream Finders Homes; Expects To Announce Completion Within Coming Day — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 23, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:10:01Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-20Item 1.02MEDIUMOn the Closing Date, in connection with the consummation of the Merger, all outstanding obligations due under the Credit Agreement, dated as of October 13, 2022 (as amended, restated or otherwise modified from time to time, the "Credit Agreement"), by and among the Company, the lenders and issuin...SEC filing →
- 2026-10-20Item 3.01LOW**(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)** | | **(Commission File Number)** | | **(IRS Employer Identification No.)** **2002 Summit Boulevard , 15th Floor** **Atlanta , Georgia 30319** **(Address of Principal Executive Offices)** **( 770) 829-3700** **(Registrant's telephone number, inclu...SEC filing →
- 2026-10-20Item 5.01MEDIUM**(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)** | | **(Commission File Number)** | | **(IRS Employer Identification No.)** **2002 Summit Boulevard , 15th Floor** **Atlanta , Georgia 30319** **(Address of Principal Executive Offices)** **( 770) 829-3700** **(Registrant's telephone number, inclu...SEC filing →
- 2026-10-20Item 5.02MEDIUM**(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)** | | **(Commission File Number)** | | **(IRS Employer Identification No.)** **2002 Summit Boulevard , 15th Floor** **Atlanta , Georgia 30319** **(Address of Principal Executive Offices)** **( 770) 829-3700** **(Registrant's telephone number, inclu...SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.48: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.87; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $33.34. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $23.38 reached (−30.2% from $33.48); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $33.34. Stop-loss: $33.34.
Target reached (-30.2% upside); Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 4.0), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.13% of cap).
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate BZH, with a consensus score of 2.4/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $28.
What does Beazer Homes USA, Inc. do?Homes is a nationally recognized homebuilder committed to building homes and communities designed with the intention of...
Homes is a nationally recognized homebuilder committed to building homes and communities designed with the intention of inspiring sustainable and healthier living. With personalized options and expert guidance, we empower homebuyers with competitive mortgage choices and energy saving features that make homeownership more attainable.