BUSE is a regional bank with strong 28% margins and a 3.6% dividend, but the stock trades 3.4% above its analyst target, revenue is declining 7% and there is no moat, so reducing the position is favored.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins No Moat→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue Weak Growth↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.36 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve.
First Busey Corporation, an $18.10 billion financial holding company, operates Busey Bank through 79 banking centers in 10 states — 50 in Illinois — along with $15.66 billion in Wealth Management assets under care and the FirsTech payment processing subsidiary. Revenue comes... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.36 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About First Busey Corporation
About First Busey Corporation
First Busey Corporation held $18.10 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, following the March 2025 CrossFirst Bankshares acquisition that expanded Busey Bank to 79 banking centers across 10 states. Wealth Management assets under care stood at $15.66 billion. Illinois anchors the footprint with 50 of the 79 banking centers, and Busey Bank ranked fourth in total Illinois deposits among 349 in-state institutions as of June 30, 2025.
First Busey earns revenue through three operating businesses. Busey Bank's principal income comes from interest and fees on commercial, CRE, real estate construction, and agricultural loans, along with wealth management fees and payment technology solutions revenue via FirsTech. The Wealth Management business serves individuals, businesses, and foundations through investment management, trust and estate advisory, brokerage, and farm management services. FirsTech delivers multi-channel payment processing to clients in financial services, utilities, insurance, and telecommunications. The company expanded its multi-state franchise through CrossFirst Bankshares (March 2025, adding banking centers in Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Arizona, Texas, and New Mexico) and Merchants and Manufacturers Bank Corporation (April 2024, adding suburban Chicago presence). CRE is a significant component of the loan portfolio, with owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied categories each carrying distinct repayment risk profiles that could adversely affect credit quality in a downturn.
Show full overview
Illinois represents the core of Busey Bank's deposit franchise: 50 of its 79 banking centers are located in the state, and the bank ranked fourth in total deposits within Illinois as of June 30, 2025. The Federal Reserve serves as Busey Bank's primary federal regulator; recent Fed guidance has signaled efforts to streamline examination processes, which the 10-K characterizes as potentially favorable to operations. Separately, CRE concentration is a named credit risk — if loan portfolio concentrations are not effectively monitored, the company notes heightened credit losses and earnings volatility may result.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From First Busey Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — First Busey Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS FIRST BUSEY ($BUSE) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) misses Q3 2026 sales expectations - StockStory — StockStory Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) misses Q3 2026 sales expectations - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) misses Q3 2026 sales expectations - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) misses Q3 2026 sales expectations - FinancialContent — FinancialContent Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicIllinois10-K Item 1: 'Busey Bank now has a total of 79 banking centers across 10 states, with 50 in Illinois'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioCRE10-K Item 1A: 'CRE is a significant component of Busey's loan portfolio and is inherently sensitive to broader economic and market fluctuations'
- HIGHregulatoryFederal Reserve10-K Item 1A: 'the Federal Reserve, Busey Bank's primary federal regulator'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWOn May 20, 2026, stockholders approved the First Busey Corporation Second Amended 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, adding 2,100,000 shares for equity awards. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure or appointment disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -6.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.36 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $28.06. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $27.69 reached (−5.7% from $29.36); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $28.06. Stop-loss: $28.06.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
First Busey Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate BUSE, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $32.
What does First Busey Corporation do?First Busey Corporation, an $18.10 billion financial holding company, operates Busey Bank through 79 banking centers in...
First Busey Corporation, an $18.10 billion financial holding company, operates Busey Bank through 79 banking centers in 10 states — 50 in Illinois — along with $15.66 billion in Wealth Management assets under care and the FirsTech payment processing subsidiary. Revenue comes from banking interest and fees, wealth management fees, and payment technology solutions. Illinois anchors the franchise, with Busey Bank ranking fourth in total state deposits among 349 in-state institutions.