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First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

First Busey Corporation is a $18.10 billion Midwest community bank holding company operating 79 banking centers across Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida, with a primary focus on commercial banking, wealth management, and payment processing through its FirsTech subsidiary.

$26.21+1.1% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#27 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.97%(5y avg 4.05%)Payout41.56%sustainable
Stop $25.15Target $26.49(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$28.57+9.0%7 analysts
$26.49our TP
$26.21price
$28.57mean
$30

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — First Busey Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn27.6%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth143.4%
Beta0.70
Dividend3.97%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV49%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.58Resistance $27.03

Price Targets

$25
$26
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BUSE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $26.49 (+1.1%), stop $25.15 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BUSE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.49 (+1.1% upside). Target $26.49 (+1.1%), stop $25.15 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $25.15.

What are the risks of investing in BUSE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is BUSE overvalued or undervalued?

First Busey Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BUSE?

14 analysts cover BUSE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $29.

What does First Busey Corporation do?First Busey Corporation is a $18.10 billion Midwest community bank holding company operating 79 banking centers across...

First Busey Corporation is a $18.10 billion Midwest community bank holding company operating 79 banking centers across Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida, with a primary focus on commercial banking, wealth management, and payment processing through its FirsTech subsidiary.

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