Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.08
BUSE · Why this verdict
Why First Busey (BUSE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BUSE is a regional bank with strong 28% margins and a 3.6% dividend, but the stock trades 3.4% above its analyst target, revenue is declining 7% and there is no moat, so reducing the position is favored.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 28%, but the business has no competitive moat and quality is below average (4.6/10). Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 28% while quality stays below 5/10. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks derive stability from local deposit franchises that the moat score may not capture. | ||
At $28.81 the stock is 3.4% above the $27.84 analyst target, so the analyst view leaves no upside and 5.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price stays at or above the analyst target without further upside over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price, and a regional bank at 10.8x forward P/E could be re-rated if earnings keep beating. | ||
Revenue is declining 7%, with growth scored 1.9/10 and revenue growth scoring only 0.8. Growth breakdown | Revenue stays flat or declining year over year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 3.0 and earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, so profits may hold up even with lower revenue. | ||
Earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the latest report on 2026-10-27 missed ($0.63 vs $0.67 estimate). Last 4 quarters | Results hover near estimates, with the next report due 2027-01-26. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise over four quarters is positive at 6.4%, and one small miss may be noise rather than a change in trend. | ||
The business has a regulatory concentration risk tied to the Federal Reserve, with 1 HIGH and 2 MED concentration risks flagged in the annual report. Bear case | Regulatory exposure remains a flagged risk through the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFederal Reserve oversight applies to all banks equally, so it is not a company-specific disadvantage. | ||
Margins are strong at 28%, but the business has no competitive moat and quality is below average (4.6/10).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 28% while quality stays below 5/10.
CounterRegional banks derive stability from local deposit franchises that the moat score may not capture.
At $28.81 the stock is 3.4% above the $27.84 analyst target, so the analyst view leaves no upside and 5.0% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price stays at or above the analyst target without further upside over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price, and a regional bank at 10.8x forward P/E could be re-rated if earnings keep beating.
Revenue is declining 7%, with growth scored 1.9/10 and revenue growth scoring only 0.8.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stays flat or declining year over year.
CounterEarnings growth scores 3.0 and earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, so profits may hold up even with lower revenue.
Earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the latest report on 2026-10-27 missed ($0.63 vs $0.67 estimate).
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Results hover near estimates, with the next report due 2027-01-26.
CounterThe average surprise over four quarters is positive at 6.4%, and one small miss may be noise rather than a change in trend.
The business has a regulatory concentration risk tied to the Federal Reserve, with 1 HIGH and 2 MED concentration risks flagged in the annual report.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Regulatory exposure remains a flagged risk through the next 12 months.
CounterFederal Reserve oversight applies to all banks equally, so it is not a company-specific disadvantage.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $130,627 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.14
Upside
-5.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.14 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.9, Momentum at 6.2, and Technical at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $33, more than 15% above the current $28.81 price.
- P2Declining Revenue Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 3% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% from current 28%.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak Slipping
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Regulatory Concentration Risk
Trip ifConcentration risks flagged as HIGH exceed 2 items from current 1.