Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
- ▸Attractively valued
BUSE · Why this verdict
Why First Busey (BUSE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average upside running roughly 7% above the Street's forecast — a pattern consistent with management guiding conservatively and repeatedly clearing that bar. Earnings | The beat streak extends for at least two additional quarters, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 3% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA sustained four-quarter beat record tends to pull analyst estimates higher; if the Street revises its forecast up toward the bank's actual earnings power, the surprise cushion compresses and the stock loses its primary re-rating catalyst. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.89 price in only modest growth expectations against a backdrop of strong earnings delivery, leaving meaningful room for valuation expansion if the earnings trajectory holds. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple expands toward 12x over the next 12 months as continued earnings outperformance draws institutional attention to the value gap. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank multiples are structurally compressed by rate-cycle sensitivity and the overhead of regulatory scrutiny; a forward multiple near 10x may simply reflect the sector's chronic discount rather than a specific mispricing worth arbitraging. | ||
With only 0.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the current entry offers materially more downside than upside, making new purchases unattractive regardless of the underlying quality story. Price targets | A pullback of at least 3% from current levels resets the asymmetry toward a more favorable entry geometry over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock trades above all key moving averages with constructive momentum — sustained buying pressure can push prices through technical ceilings, rendering the current resistance level moot if the next earnings report beats by a wide margin. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, indicating the bank is in a fundamentally improving cycle rather than a deteriorating one. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above for the next four quarters, confirming the financial health signal is durable rather than transient. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank carries one high and two medium regulatory concentration risks tied to Federal Reserve oversight; a single adverse supervisory determination could impair key profitability or leverage metrics and cause the F-Score to drop without warning. | ||
The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average upside running roughly 7% above the Street's forecast — a pattern consistent with management guiding conservatively and repeatedly clearing that bar.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends for at least two additional quarters, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 3% over the next 12 months.
CounterA sustained four-quarter beat record tends to pull analyst estimates higher; if the Street revises its forecast up toward the bank's actual earnings power, the surprise cushion compresses and the stock loses its primary re-rating catalyst.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.89 price in only modest growth expectations against a backdrop of strong earnings delivery, leaving meaningful room for valuation expansion if the earnings trajectory holds.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple expands toward 12x over the next 12 months as continued earnings outperformance draws institutional attention to the value gap.
CounterRegional bank multiples are structurally compressed by rate-cycle sensitivity and the overhead of regulatory scrutiny; a forward multiple near 10x may simply reflect the sector's chronic discount rather than a specific mispricing worth arbitraging.
With only 0.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the current entry offers materially more downside than upside, making new purchases unattractive regardless of the underlying quality story.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback of at least 3% from current levels resets the asymmetry toward a more favorable entry geometry over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock trades above all key moving averages with constructive momentum — sustained buying pressure can push prices through technical ceilings, rendering the current resistance level moot if the next earnings report beats by a wide margin.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, indicating the bank is in a fundamentally improving cycle rather than a deteriorating one.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above for the next four quarters, confirming the financial health signal is durable rather than transient.
CounterThe bank carries one high and two medium regulatory concentration risks tied to Federal Reserve oversight; a single adverse supervisory determination could impair key profitability or leverage metrics and cause the F-Score to drop without warning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Busey has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 7% above consensus at a forward multiple of 10.4x and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, signaling an attractively valued, financially sound franchise; however, with only 0.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the current price offers far more downside than upside and the position does not warrant adding to at present.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 143% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $76,546 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 9.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $29.65 has reached target $29.91. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.38
Upside
-11.6%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Growth at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Insider at 5.0, and Momentum at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifConsensus forward EPS estimates are revised downward by more than 15% over any 2-quarter period, eroding the forward multiple advantage.
- P3Price Exhausted Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice breaks above $28.52 on above-average volume and holds for 2 consecutive weeks, invalidating the resistance ceiling.
- P4Strong Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 for 2 consecutive quarters.