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BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.Sell5.0·$5.51+0.73%
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BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. At $5.51, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.0%.

BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United States and Norway. It operates through Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity; Net Leased and Other Real Estate; and Corporate and Other segments. The... Read more

$5.51+4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#22 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-39.25%
IncomeYield11.76%(5y avg 10.56%)Payout2000.00%
Stop $5.16Target $5.66(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$6.50+18.0%8 analysts
$5.66our TP
$5.51price
$6.50mean
$7

Sell if holding. At $5.51, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.0%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.0%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$709M
EV/EBITDA17.5
Profit Mgn-9.4%
ROE-4.1%
Rev Growth6.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend11.76%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV35%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 1176.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.26Resistance $5.55

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BRSP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $5.51, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.0%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $5.16. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BRSP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.66 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $5.16. Stop-loss: $5.16.

What are the risks of investing in BRSP?

Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is BRSP overvalued or undervalued?

BrightSpire Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BRSP?

14 analysts cover BRSP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $7.

What does BrightSpire Capital, Inc. do?BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United...

BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United States and Norway. It operates through Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity; Net Leased and Other Real Estate; and Corporate and Other segments. The company focuses on originating, acquiring, financing, and managing a diversified portfolio of CRE debt investments consisting of senior mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity investments, net leased real estate and other real estate properties, and CRE debt securities. It also engages in money market activities; and invests in private equity funds. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc. and changed its name to BrightSpire Capital, Inc. in June 2021. BrightSpire Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in New York, New York.

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