Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸Attractively valued
BRSL · Why this verdict
Why Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading (BRSL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brightstar Lottery trades at a forward P/E of 13.5x with a 9.5% dividend and 38.5% upside to the analyst target, but declining revenue (-7%), a weak 3/9 Piotroski score, leverage (D/E 2.2) and a confirmed downtrend make it a speculative recovery case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Debt-to-equity of 2.2 earned a leverage penalty of -1.5, and the debt-to-equity risk component is low at 2.8 out of 10, so the dividend depends on stable cash flow. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 2.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExcellent cash conversion of 1000% FCF/NI suggests the cash flow to service debt is strong. | ||
At a forward P/E of 13.5x and a 9.5% dividend yield, Brightstar is attractively valued with a 44% margin of safety. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 15x while the dividend is maintained over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 9.5% yield alongside D/E of 2.2 and declining revenue may signal a market-expected dividend cut, making the valuation a trap. | ||
Brightstar beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 15.7%, and the next report is in 9 days. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-10 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOne quarter missed by 22.1%, guidance is unknown, and revenue data is only provisional from yfinance, so the beat quality is uncertain. | ||
Revenue is declining 7% and the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 3/9, so the business is deteriorating even though cash conversion is excellent. Quality breakdown | Revenue decline narrows to better than -3% and Piotroski F-Score rises above 5. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth ranks last among peers (0.0 out of 10) and there is no competitive moat, so a recovery has no structural support. | ||
The analyst target of $13.37 sits 38.5% above the $9.65 price, but price is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.9% per 30 days. Analyst target | Price holds above the $9.03 stop and the 200-day slope flattens toward zero. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution and a 44% drawdown, and light analyst coverage dampens the target signal. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 2.2 earned a leverage penalty of -1.5, and the debt-to-equity risk component is low at 2.8 out of 10, so the dividend depends on stable cash flow.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 2.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterExcellent cash conversion of 1000% FCF/NI suggests the cash flow to service debt is strong.
At a forward P/E of 13.5x and a 9.5% dividend yield, Brightstar is attractively valued with a 44% margin of safety.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x while the dividend is maintained over 12 months.
CounterA 9.5% yield alongside D/E of 2.2 and declining revenue may signal a market-expected dividend cut, making the valuation a trap.
Brightstar beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 15.7%, and the next report is in 9 days.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-10 report.
CounterOne quarter missed by 22.1%, guidance is unknown, and revenue data is only provisional from yfinance, so the beat quality is uncertain.
Revenue is declining 7% and the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 3/9, so the business is deteriorating even though cash conversion is excellent.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline narrows to better than -3% and Piotroski F-Score rises above 5.
CounterGrowth ranks last among peers (0.0 out of 10) and there is no competitive moat, so a recovery has no structural support.
The analyst target of $13.37 sits 38.5% above the $9.65 price, but price is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.9% per 30 days.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price holds above the $9.03 stop and the 200-day slope flattens toward zero.
CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution and a 44% drawdown, and light analyst coverage dampens the target signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
0.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 12.12
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Above max pain $3
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend: 9.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.64
Upside
+33.4%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 1.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.64 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Sentiment at 7.7, and Insider at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.7, Technical at 1.8, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation High Yield
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 5% because of a dividend cut from the current 9.5%.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Declining Revenue Weak Piotroski
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 10% YoY from the current -7%.
- P4Leverage Risk Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 2.5 from the current 2.2.
- P5Analyst Upside Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below $9.03, the stop level, from the current $9.65.