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Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%).

Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused net lease REIT with 771 properties (~63M sq ft) across 44 US states and 4 Canadian provinces under single-tenant commercial net leases. The portfolio generates $428.8M ABR at 99.8% occupancy with industrial properties comprising... Read more

$20.27-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 7 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.94%
IncomeYield5.76%(5y avg 6.07%)Payout178.85%
Stop $19.59Target $19.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$21.55+6.3%11 analysts
$19.95our TP
$20.27price
$21.55mean
$24

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.1
P/E (Fwd)26.3
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA16.6
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta0.99
Dividend5.76%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.67bearish
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
  • MEDIUMPropertyretail properties30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
  • MEDIUMGeographictop-5 states35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 35.4% of our ABR came from properties in our top five states: Texas (10.2%), Michigan (8.6%), Florida (5.9%), Illinois (5.4%), and California (5.3%)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
9.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.6
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.35Resistance $20.36

Price Targets

$20
$20
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.59. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.95 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $19.59. Stop-loss: $19.59.

What are the risks of investing in BNL?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.0% away).

Is BNL overvalued or undervalued?

Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.1 (forward 26.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BNL?

14 analysts cover BNL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. do?Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused net lease REIT with 771 properties (~63M sq ft) across 44 US states and 4...

Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused net lease REIT with 771 properties (~63M sq ft) across 44 US states and 4 Canadian provinces under single-tenant commercial net leases. The portfolio generates $428.8M ABR at 99.8% occupancy with industrial properties comprising 61.9% and retail 30.1% of ABR. No single tenant exceeds 3.9% of ABR across 206 commercial tenants.

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