Broadstone Net Lease combines strong cash conversion (172% FCF/NI) and 14.5% upside to the $19.57 target with weak momentum, industrial-property concentration and a high put/call ratio.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Cash Conversion↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Target Upside Reit↓Deteriorating
- Industrial Property Concentration→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Sell if holding. At $17.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%).
Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, net leased on a long-term basis to 206 tenants across 57 industries. Revenue is derived from triple-net base rents with an ABR of... Read more
Sell if holding. At $17.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
About Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
Broadstone Net Lease's 771-property portfolio generated $428.8 million in annualized base rent at December 31, 2025, with industrial assets representing 61.9% of ABR and retail properties contributing 30.1%, spanning 41.6 million rentable square feet across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces. The portfolio was 99.8% leased with a weighted average remaining lease term of 9.6 years and 97.6% of leases providing contractual rent escalations averaging 2.1% annually.
Broadstone Net Lease earns revenue through triple-net (NNN) leases — tenants are obligated to pay real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and capital costs — with initial lease terms of 10 years or more. Master leases covering 38.6% of overall ABR bind multiple properties under an all-or-none structure, concentrating credit exposure but restricting tenant ability to exit underperforming locations selectively. Industrial assets including distribution and warehouse, manufacturing, food processing, and flex/R&D facilities represent 61.9% of ABR, while retail assets such as general merchandise, quick service restaurants, casual dining, and automotive properties account for 30.1%. Geographic diversification is meaningful — the top five states (Texas 10.2%, Michigan 8.6%, Florida 5.9%, Illinois 5.4%, California 5.3%) collectively represent 35.4% of ABR, with no single state above 10.2%. Only 20.2% of ABR came from investment-grade tenants as of year-end 2025.
Show full overview
Tenant credit quality shapes portfolio risk in a measurable way: only 20.2% of ABR at December 31, 2025 came from tenants with an investment-grade credit rating, with the substantial majority leased to unrated counterparties — a risk the 10-K characterizes as presenting materially higher default exposure than investment-grade-focused peers. The top 10 tenants, led by Roskam Baking Company (3.9% of ABR) and United Natural Foods (3.4%), represented 21.1% of ABR collectively. A default under a master lease — covering 38.6% of overall ABR across 379 properties — could simultaneously reduce rental revenue across multiple assets.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
From Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS BROADSTONE NET LEASE ($BNL) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) Reports Q3 Results with Slight FFO Mi - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) Q3 FFO Meet Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS (BNL) Broadstone Net Lease Expects 2026 Adjusted FFO Range $1.55 - $1.57, vs. FactSet Est of $1.56 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS (BNL) Broadstone Net Lease Expects 2026 Adjusted FFO Range $1.55 - $1.57, vs. FactSet Est of $1.56 - www.marketscreener. — www.marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:44:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertyindustrial properties62%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
- MEDIUMPropertyretail properties30%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
- MEDIUMGeographictop five states35%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 35.4% of our ABR came from properties in our top five states: Texas (10.2%), Michigan (8.6%), Florida (5.9%), Illinois (5.4%), and California (5.3%)'
- LOWTenanttop 10 tenants21%10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 tenants together represented 21.1% of our ABR'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $17.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $17.00. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $19.57 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.00. Stop-loss: $17.00.
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate BNL, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $23.
What does Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. do?Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and...
Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, net leased on a long-term basis to 206 tenants across 57 industries. Revenue is derived from triple-net base rents with an ABR of $428.8 million at December 31, 2025, 99.8% occupancy, and a 9.6-year weighted average remaining lease term.