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BNLBroadstone Net Lease, Inc.Sell5.9·$20.94+0.72%
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Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%).

Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, net leased on a long-term basis to 206 tenants across 57 industries. Revenue is derived from triple-net base rents with an ABR of... Read more

$20.94+0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 7 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.79%
IncomeYield5.60%(5y avg 6.13%)Payout178.85%
Stop $20.18Target $21.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$22.33+6.7%9 analysts
$21.07our TP
$20.94price
$22.33mean
$20
$24

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

About Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Broadstone Net Lease's 771-property portfolio generated $428.8 million in annualized base rent at December 31, 2025, with industrial assets representing 61.9% of ABR and retail properties contributing 30.1%, spanning 41.6 million rentable square feet across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces. The portfolio was 99.8% leased with a weighted average remaining lease term of 9.6 years and 97.6% of leases providing contractual rent escalations averaging 2.1% annually.

Broadstone Net Lease earns revenue through triple-net (NNN) leases — tenants are obligated to pay real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and capital costs — with initial lease terms of 10 years or more. Master leases covering 38.6% of overall ABR bind multiple properties under an all-or-none structure, concentrating credit exposure but restricting tenant ability to exit underperforming locations selectively. Industrial assets including distribution and warehouse, manufacturing, food processing, and flex/R&D facilities represent 61.9% of ABR, while retail assets such as general merchandise, quick service restaurants, casual dining, and automotive properties account for 30.1%. Geographic diversification is meaningful — the top five states (Texas 10.2%, Michigan 8.6%, Florida 5.9%, Illinois 5.4%, California 5.3%) collectively represent 35.4% of ABR, with no single state above 10.2%. Only 20.2% of ABR came from investment-grade tenants as of year-end 2025.

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Tenant credit quality shapes portfolio risk in a measurable way: only 20.2% of ABR at December 31, 2025 came from tenants with an investment-grade credit rating, with the substantial majority leased to unrated counterparties — a risk the 10-K characterizes as presenting materially higher default exposure than investment-grade-focused peers. The top 10 tenants, led by Roskam Baking Company (3.9% of ABR) and United Natural Foods (3.4%), represented 21.1% of ABR collectively. A default under a master lease — covering 38.6% of overall ABR across 379 properties — could simultaneously reduce rental revenue across multiple assets.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

From Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.0
P/E (Fwd)25.5
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta0.98
Dividend5.60%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV131%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
  • MEDIUMPropertyretail properties30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 61.9% of our ABR came from industrial properties and 30.1% from retail properties'
  • MEDIUMGeographictop five states35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 35.4% of our ABR came from properties in our top five states: Texas (10.2%), Michigan (8.6%), Florida (5.9%), Illinois (5.4%), and California (5.3%)'
  • LOWTenanttop 10 tenants21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 tenants together represented 21.1% of our ABR'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.80Resistance $21.50

Price Targets

$20
$21
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $20.18. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.07 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $20.18. Stop-loss: $20.18.

What are the risks of investing in BNL?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (61.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away).

Is BNL overvalued or undervalued?

Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 25.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BNL?

14 analysts cover BNL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. do?Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and...

Broadstone Net Lease is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT with 771 properties across 44 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, net leased on a long-term basis to 206 tenants across 57 industries. Revenue is derived from triple-net base rents with an ABR of $428.8 million at December 31, 2025, 99.8% occupancy, and a 9.6-year weighted average remaining lease term.

Related stocks: VICI (VICI Properties Inc.) · WPC (W. P. Carey Inc. REIT) · SAFE (Safehold Inc. New) · ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.) · AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.)
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