Value
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| p ocf | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 12.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
BNL · Why this verdict
Why Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Broadstone Net Lease combines strong cash conversion (172% FCF/NI) and 14.5% upside to the $19.57 target with weak momentum, industrial-property concentration and a high put/call ratio.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is excellent at 172% FCF/NI with 30% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and quality holds above 6.5 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNet-lease cash flow is fixed by long leases, so margin strength may not translate into growth; growth scores only 3.2. | ||
At $17.10 the stock is 14.5% below the $19.57 analyst target, with analyst-implied upside of 32% and a reward-to-risk of 2.44. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $19.57 target as earnings continue to match or beat estimates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, so targets may prove optimistic. | ||
Industrial properties make up 61.9% of the portfolio and the 10-K flags 1 HIGH and 2 MED concentration risks. Bear case | Industrial share of the portfolio does not rise and occupancy remains stable. | →Stable |
| CounterAn industrial downturn or tenant defaults would hit most of the portfolio at once. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.7/10 with falling on-balance volume, though the price is below a still-rising 200-day average (+1.1%/30d), a pullback in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 as the price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume distribution and a put/call ratio of 11.80 suggest informed hedging that could precede further downside. | ||
Insiders are buying ($211,600) and institutions are accumulating, a supportive signal despite weak price action. Insider breakdown | Insider activity stays net buying and institutional holdings keep rising. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is only 0.006% of market cap, too small to be a meaningful conviction signal. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 172% FCF/NI with 30% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and quality holds above 6.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterNet-lease cash flow is fixed by long leases, so margin strength may not translate into growth; growth scores only 3.2.
At $17.10 the stock is 14.5% below the $19.57 analyst target, with analyst-implied upside of 32% and a reward-to-risk of 2.44.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $19.57 target as earnings continue to match or beat estimates.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, so targets may prove optimistic.
Industrial properties make up 61.9% of the portfolio and the 10-K flags 1 HIGH and 2 MED concentration risks.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Industrial share of the portfolio does not rise and occupancy remains stable.
CounterAn industrial downturn or tenant defaults would hit most of the portfolio at once.
Momentum is weak at 2.7/10 with falling on-balance volume, though the price is below a still-rising 200-day average (+1.1%/30d), a pullback in an uptrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 as the price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterVolume distribution and a put/call ratio of 11.80 suggest informed hedging that could precede further downside.
Insiders are buying ($211,600) and institutions are accumulating, a supportive signal despite weak price action.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider activity stays net buying and institutional holdings keep rising.
CounterThe purchase is only 0.006% of market cap, too small to be a meaningful conviction signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.3 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 172% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 59 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 2.1 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 8.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $211,600 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 0.3 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.25
Upside
+8.9%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.4, Momentum at 7.1, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from current 172%.
- P2Analyst Target Upside Reit
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $18, less than 5% above the current $17.10 price.
- P3Industrial Property Concentration
Trip ifIndustrial properties share of the portfolio exceeds 70% from 61.9%.
- P4Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifShare price falls below the $16.20 stop level, more than 5% below $17.10.
- P5Insider Buying Support
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $500,000 over 90 days.