Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.76
BKNG · Why this verdict
Why Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (BKNG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters — the most recent was a beat, preceded by an inline quarter, then two older beats — with no outright misses, demonstrating a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations. Earnings | The company delivers at least 3 beats in the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 3%, extending the outperformance track record. | — |
| CounterAverage quarterly surprise has been modest at roughly 4.9%; if management provides guidance that resets consensus upward, the cushion narrows and the track record of outperformance becomes harder to maintain. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock trades at a discount to its earnings growth rate and screens attractively valued relative to both the peer universe and the company's own growth profile. Value | Forward P/E remains below 18x for the next 12 months while earnings growth sustains the PEG below 1.0, confirming the valuation discount is intact. | — |
| CounterStrong growth expectations are already embedded in analyst targets; a slowdown in earnings growth — even modest — could push the PEG above 1.0 and render the current multiple no longer attractive on a growth-adjusted basis. | ||
The business posts 22% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a combined score of 42, and achieves a near-perfect Piotroski balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9, establishing durable earnings power and balance-sheet discipline that support a premium multiple. Quality | Net margin remains above 18% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 35 for the next four quarters, confirming the quality of the franchise is intact. | — |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.51 indicates meaningful options-market skepticism; if near-term earnings disappoint, the premium quality multiple could compress rapidly given the confirmed price downtrend already in place. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average — whose slope is declining at roughly 4.4% over 30 days — in a confirmed technical downtrend, creating near-term entry timing risk even as rising on-balance volume suggests underlying accumulation. Momentum | If the thesis holds, the price downtrend persists for at least 2 more months, offering a better entry point below current levels before momentum recovers. | — |
| CounterRising on-balance volume in the context of a price decline indicates institutional buyers may be absorbing selling pressure; if accumulation continues, the price could recover toward the 200-day moving average faster than the downtrend pattern implies. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters — the most recent was a beat, preceded by an inline quarter, then two older beats — with no outright misses, demonstrating a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least 3 beats in the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 3%, extending the outperformance track record.
CounterAverage quarterly surprise has been modest at roughly 4.9%; if management provides guidance that resets consensus upward, the cushion narrows and the track record of outperformance becomes harder to maintain.
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock trades at a discount to its earnings growth rate and screens attractively valued relative to both the peer universe and the company's own growth profile.
—Value
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 18x for the next 12 months while earnings growth sustains the PEG below 1.0, confirming the valuation discount is intact.
CounterStrong growth expectations are already embedded in analyst targets; a slowdown in earnings growth — even modest — could push the PEG above 1.0 and render the current multiple no longer attractive on a growth-adjusted basis.
The business posts 22% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a combined score of 42, and achieves a near-perfect Piotroski balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9, establishing durable earnings power and balance-sheet discipline that support a premium multiple.
—Quality
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 18% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 35 for the next four quarters, confirming the quality of the franchise is intact.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.51 indicates meaningful options-market skepticism; if near-term earnings disappoint, the premium quality multiple could compress rapidly given the confirmed price downtrend already in place.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average — whose slope is declining at roughly 4.4% over 30 days — in a confirmed technical downtrend, creating near-term entry timing risk even as rising on-balance volume suggests underlying accumulation.
—Momentum
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, the price downtrend persists for at least 2 more months, offering a better entry point below current levels before momentum recovers.
CounterRising on-balance volume in the context of a price decline indicates institutional buyers may be absorbing selling pressure; if accumulation continues, the price could recover toward the 200-day moving average faster than the downtrend pattern implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Rule of 40: 42 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 6.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $10,445,456 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| beta | 6.7 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.76, quality 8.3/10, growth 8.3/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.27
Upside
+12.9%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (3.7)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.27 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Growth at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Momentum at 3.7, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.27 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Margins And Balance Sheet
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 18% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 22%.
- P2Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the current no-miss streak.
- P3Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the growth-adjusted valuation discount has closed.
- P4Confirmed Price Downtrend Timing Risk
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the technical downtrend has reversed.