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BigBear.ai, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.95: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

BigBear.ai provides AI-driven analytics, computer vision, and predictive analytics primarily to U.S. defense and national security customers, with recent acquisitions of Ask Sage (FedRAMP-authorized generative AI) and CargoSeer (cargo scanning AI for customs). Revenue of... Read more

$3.95+16.0% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#33 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-3.04%
Stop $3.63Target $4.53(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$5.33+35.0%3 analysts
$4.53our TP
$3.95price
$5.33mean
$6

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.95: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.5Qual1.6Grw2.3Mom4.2Sent6.8Ins3.9Peer2.5Tech4.4Risk2.53.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — BigBear.ai, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues (51.0%)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-20.4
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-25.8
Profit Mgn-226.7%
ROE-58.4%
Rev Growth-0.9%
Beta3.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$1-87.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomercustomers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues51%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue earned from customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues was $65 million or 51% of revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -226.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.2
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
2.5
Current Ratio
6.9
Cash-burning: FCF -47% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -0.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
2.1

Volatile — 7.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.0
Short Interest
0.5
Debt Equity
2.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
6.2
Put Call
8.7
High short interest justified: 30%High IV: 97%Above max pain $0Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.61Resistance $4.46

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside+14.7%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.95: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $3.63. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the BBAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.53 (+16.0% upside). Prior stop was $3.63. Stop-loss: $3.63.

What are the risks of investing in BBAI?

Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues (51.0%); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is BBAI overvalued or undervalued?

BigBear.ai, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBAI?

9 analysts cover BBAI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $5.

What does BigBear.ai, Inc. do?BigBear.ai provides AI-driven analytics, computer vision, and predictive analytics primarily to U.S. defense and...

BigBear.ai provides AI-driven analytics, computer vision, and predictive analytics primarily to U.S. defense and national security customers, with recent acquisitions of Ask Sage (FedRAMP-authorized generative AI) and CargoSeer (cargo scanning AI for customs). Revenue of approximately $127 million (implied from backlog/contract data) is derived from government contracts structured as time-and-material (61%) and fixed-price (25%) arrangements. A concentrated group of large customers accounts for a majority of revenue.

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