BigBear.ai, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BBAI stock price target?

Take-profit $4.53 (+17.8% upside). Prior stop was $3.58.

Q: What are the risks of investing in BBAI?

Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues (51.0%); Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0); Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0); Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum.

Q: Is BBAI overvalued or undervalued?

BigBear.ai, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about BBAI?

9 analysts cover BBAI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $5.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.84: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

$3.84+17.8% A.UpsideScore 3.2/10#35 of 35 Information Technology Services

Stop $3.58Target $4.53(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.2:1

Analyst target$5.33+38.9%3 analysts

$4.53our TP

$3.84price

$5.33mean

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues (51.0%)

Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-19.1

Mkt Cap$1.8B

EV/EBITDA-26.0

Profit Mgn-230.2%

ROE-96.7%

Rev Growth-37.7%

Beta3.24

DividendNone

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish

IV122%elevated

Max Pain$1-87.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomercustomers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues51%
10-K Item 1A: 'revenue earned from customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues was $65 million or 51% of revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.715%0.70

Quality1.915%0.28

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum5.410%0.54

Sentiment6.610%0.66

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank0.210%0.02

Technical Setup3.25%0.16

Risk Profile3.85%0.19

Catalyst5.55%0.28

Overall (Σ contributions)3.23

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -37.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -38%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.0

Growth Rank

0.0

Value Rank

0.9

Unprofitable operations — net margin -230.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Gross Margin

0.5

Piotroski F

3.3

Moat

5.0

Current Ratio

6.3

Cash-burning: FCF -37% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.0

Bollinger

3.1

Support Resistance

3.7

Gap

6.0

GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

64 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.21Resistance $4.22

Price Targets

A.Upside+18.0%

A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for BBAI.

The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BBAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.84: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $3.58. Score 3.2/10, high confidence.

What is the BBAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.53 (+17.8% upside). Prior stop was $3.58. Stop-loss: $3.58.

What are the risks of investing in BBAI?

Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues (51.0%); Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is BBAI overvalued or undervalued?

BigBear.ai, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBAI?

9 analysts cover BBAI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $5.

What does BigBear.ai, Inc. do?BigBear.ai provides mission-ready AI technology for defense, national security, travel, and trade sectors primarily to...

BigBear.ai provides mission-ready AI technology for defense, national security, travel, and trade sectors primarily to U.S. government customers via time-and-material (61% of 2025 revenue) and fixed-price (25%) contracts. The company acquired Ask Sage, a FedRAMP-authorized generative AI platform with 100,000+ DoD users, in December 2025. Customers each contributing more than 10% accounted for 51% of 2025 revenue.