A confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross in place and free cash flow converting at only 36% of net income are the dominant near-term headwinds, though the two most recent quarters both beat consensus and 15% headroom to the analyst target with a 2.8-to-1 risk/reward maintains a watchable recovery setup.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
- Weak Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Recovery Recent Beats→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $3158.68: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $3158.68: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-30Recent Developments — AutoZone, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Investors Heavily Search AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): Here is What You Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Analysts’ Top Consumer Cyclical Picks: Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK), AutoZone (AZO) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS AutoZone Races Past Earnings Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - Barron's — Barron's negative
- NEWS AutoZone stock has worst day in four years, despite retailer beating Wall Street estimates - CNBC — CNBC negative
- NEWS AutoZone stock on pace for worst trading day since March 2020, despite retailer beating Wall Street estimates - CNBC — CNBC negative
Generated 2026-06-30T03:23:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $3158.68: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $2963.90. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $3572.44 (+13.3% upside). Prior stop was $2963.90. Stop-loss: $2963.90.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
AutoZone, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts cover AZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $3969.
What does AutoZone, Inc. do?We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in...
We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. At August 30, 2025, in 6,098 of our domestic stores as well as the vast majority of our stores in Mexico and