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AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. At $3660.01, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and... Read more

$3660.01+3.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#16 of 26 Auto Parts
Stop $3487.89Target $3784.27(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$4204.74+14.9%23 analysts
$3784.27our TP
$3660.01price
$4204.74mean
$3000
$4800

Sell if holding. At $3660.01, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.6%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$58.4B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV40%normal
Max Pain$2000-45.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.5
Revenue Growth
4.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
1.4
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.6
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3361.29Resistance $3698.81

Price Targets

$3488
$3784
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-26 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AZO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $3660.01, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $3487.89. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AZO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3784.27 (+3.6% upside). Prior stop was $3487.89. Stop-loss: $3487.89.

What are the risks of investing in AZO?

Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is AZO overvalued or undervalued?

AutoZone, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AZO?

32 analysts cover AZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $4205.

What does AutoZone, Inc. do?We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in...

We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. At August 30, 2025, in 6,098 of our domestic stores as well as the vast majority of our stores in Mexico and

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