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AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-26). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3365.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and... Read more

$3365.74+12.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#21 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.53%
Stop $3181.60Target $3784.27(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$4204.74+24.9%23 analysts
$3784.27our TP
$3365.74price
$4204.74mean
$3000
$4800

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3365.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — AutoZone, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$55.8B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.44
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.19bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$4160+23.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.5
Revenue Growth
4.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.1
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 7 days
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3280.00Resistance $3729.82

Price Targets

$3182
$3784
A.Upside+12.4%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-26 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AZO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3365.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $3181.60. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the AZO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3784.27 (+12.4% upside). Prior stop was $3181.60. Stop-loss: $3181.60.

What are the risks of investing in AZO?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AZO overvalued or undervalued?

AutoZone, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AZO?

32 analysts cover AZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $4205.

What does AutoZone, Inc. do?We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in...

We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. At August 30, 2025, in 6,098 of our domestic stores as well as the vast majority of our stores in Mexico and

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