A confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross in place and free cash flow converting at only 36% of net income are the dominant near-term headwinds, though the two most recent quarters both beat consensus and 15% headroom to the analyst target with a 2.8-to-1 risk/reward maintains a watchable recovery setup.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Weak Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Recovery Recent Beats↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2846.27: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
AutoZone is a leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories across the Americas, operating 6,627 stores in the U.S., 883 in Mexico and 147 in Brazil as of August 30, 2025, alongside a commercial sales program serving repair garages, dealers and... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2846.27: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About AutoZone, Inc.
About AutoZone, Inc.
AutoZone operated 7,657 total stores as of August 30, 2025 — 6,627 in the United States, 883 in Mexico and 147 in Brazil — after opening 305 net new locations during fiscal 2025. Revenue grew from $12.6 billion in fiscal 2020 to $18.9 billion in fiscal 2025, an approximate eight percent compounded annual growth rate, split between retail (DIY) sales and a commercial sales program serving repair garages, dealers and fleet accounts.
AutoZone earns revenue through direct retail sales in stores and online at autozone.com, plus a commercial program offering prompt delivery and credit through autozonepro.com to independent repair shops, dealers and fleet accounts; most stores carry 20,000 to 25,000 SKUs, with hub and mega hub locations stocking up to 110,000 SKUs to backstop nearby stores. One class of similar products accounted for approximately 14 percent of total revenue in fiscal 2025, and a single vendor supplied 13 percent of total purchases, though the company states alternative sources exist at similar cost for most products it sells. Labor represents AutoZone's largest operating expense, and the 10-K notes none of its roughly 130,000 AutoZoners are covered by a collective bargaining agreement in the U.S., though it flags rising unionization activity industry-wide as a risk. Exclusive private-label brands including Duralast, Econocraft and ShopPro anchor the good/better/best pricing tiers that differentiate the retailer from national competitors.
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Labor exposure is AutoZone's least-diversifiable cost risk: none of its domestic AutoZoners currently bargain collectively, but the 10-K flags that a recent increase in union organizing activity nationally, combined with NLRB decisions that make organizing easier, could still unionize a meaningful share of its roughly 130,000-person workforce. Because payroll is described as the company's largest operating expense, a shift toward collective bargaining — or simply continued wage inflation in a tight labor market — would compress margins in a business that also can't easily pass rising labor costs onto price-sensitive DIY customers without risking a further drop in store traffic.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
From AutoZone, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 3, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-08Recent Developments — AutoZone, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is Autozone a Buy After Its Latest Earnings Report? - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool positive
- NEWS AZO Stock In Focus: Analysts Cut Targets After Q4 Results, Debate Pace Of FY27 Recovery - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS AutoZone (AZO) Posts Strong Earnings, But Is the Stock Ready to Rebound? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS AutoZone (AZO) Posts Strong Earnings, But Is the Stock Ready to Rebound? - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
- NEWS Why AutoZone Stock Rallied Today - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool positive
Generated 2026-10-08T11:32:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWProductone class of similar products14%10-K Item 1: 'one class of similar products accounted for approximately 14 percent of our total revenues'
- LOWSupplierone individual vendor13%10-K Item 1: 'one individual vendor provided 13 percent of our total purchases'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2846.27: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $2661.33. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $3347.96 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $2661.33. Stop-loss: $2661.33.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
AutoZone, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts cover AZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $3720.
What does AutoZone, Inc. do?AutoZone is a leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories across the Americas,...
AutoZone is a leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories across the Americas, operating 6,627 stores in the U.S., 883 in Mexico and 147 in Brazil as of August 30, 2025, alongside a commercial sales program serving repair garages, dealers and fleet accounts. Revenue grew from $12.6 billion in fiscal 2020 to $18.9 billion in fiscal 2025, an approximate eight percent compounded annual growth rate, with in-house brands like Duralast supporting a good/better/best pricing strategy.