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LKQLKQ CorporationSell5.5·$25.72+2.63%
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LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement parts, components and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles, and specialty aftermarket products and accessories to improve the performance,... Read more

$25.72+38.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#11 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.37%
IncomeYield4.79%Payout60.00%sustainable
Stop $23.98Target $35.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$40.81+58.7%8 analysts
$35.51our TP
$25.72price
$40.81mean
$48

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 38%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA7.7
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta0.82
Dividend4.79%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.10bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$18-32.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    LKQ CORPORATION | By: | /s/ Matthew J. McKay | Matthew J. McKay | Senior Vice President, General Coun [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.9
Macd
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 479.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.4
Quality Rank
4.6
Value Rank
8.4
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.70Resistance $27.93

Price Targets

$24
$36
A.Upside+38.1%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LKQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $23.98. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the LKQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.51 (+38.5% upside). Prior stop was $23.98. Stop-loss: $23.98.

What are the risks of investing in LKQ?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is LKQ overvalued or undervalued?

LKQ Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LKQ?

15 analysts cover LKQ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $41.

What does LKQ Corporation do?LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement...

LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement parts, components and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles, and specialty aftermarket products and accessories to improve the performance, functionality and appearance of vehicles.

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