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LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement parts, components and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles, and specialty aftermarket products and accessories to improve the performance,... Read more

$24.29+47.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#11 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.63%
IncomeYield4.89%Payout60.00%sustainable
Stop $23.26Target $35.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.9:1
Analyst target$40.81+68.0%8 analysts
$35.51our TP
$24.29price
$40.81mean
$48

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — LKQ Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 47%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta0.87
Dividend4.89%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$20-17.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    LKQ CORPORATION | By: | /s/ Matthew J. McKay | Matthew J. McKay | Senior Vice President, General Coun [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
1.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 489.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.4
Quality Rank
4.8
Value Rank
8.4
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
14 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.98Resistance $32.52

Price Targets

$23
$36
A.Upside+46.2%
A.R:R4.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LKQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $23.26. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the LKQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.51 (+47.1% upside). Prior stop was $23.26. Stop-loss: $23.26.

What are the risks of investing in LKQ?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is LKQ overvalued or undervalued?

LKQ Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LKQ?

15 analysts cover LKQ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $41.

What does LKQ Corporation do?LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement...

LKQ Corporation ("LKQ," the "Company" or "we") is a global distributor of vehicle products, including replacement parts, components and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles, and specialty aftermarket products and accessories to improve the performance, functionality and appearance of vehicles.

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