Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.70
AYI · Why this verdict
Why Acuity (AYI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Acuity is a solid industrial with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, a Piotroski score of 9/9 and a forward P/E of 13.6x in a breakout setup. The price of $318.14 is only 1.2% below the $322.04 analyst target and earnings estimates are trending down, leaving little room for new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Acuity beat EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of 3.0% and the latest at 3.8% on EPS of $5.77. Earnings track record | EPS should keep beating estimates in the report due 2027-01-07 and the following quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are small (2% to 4%) and earnings estimates are trending down, so beats may reflect lowered expectations rather than stronger operations. | ||
Acuity has a solid balance of quality, with a Piotroski score of 9/9, moat score of 6.5/10 and quality ranking above peers. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score should stay at 8 or higher while margins hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReturn and margin components cluster around 6/10 only, which is average rather than exceptional, and revenue growth scores just 3.2/10. | ||
The price of $318.14 is only 1.2% below the $322.04 analyst target against 7.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.16. Estimated upside | Upside should widen above 10% through target raises or a pullback. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA breakout with a golden cross and a four-quarter beat streak could lead analysts to raise targets above the current price. | ||
A breakout setup is in place with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI at 68 and bullish MACD, but on-balance volume is falling and the 200-day slope is flat. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume should turn up and price should hold above its 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling volume shows distribution into strength, and the breakout may fail near the analyst target. | ||
Insiders sold $11.5M recently (0.121% of market cap) while earnings estimates are trending down, a cautionary pairing for a stock at its target. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should stay below 0.2% of market cap and estimates should stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsider sales are modest relative to market cap and institutions are accumulating, which offsets the signal. | ||
Acuity beat EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of 3.0% and the latest at 3.8% on EPS of $5.77.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates in the report due 2027-01-07 and the following quarters.
CounterBeats are small (2% to 4%) and earnings estimates are trending down, so beats may reflect lowered expectations rather than stronger operations.
Acuity has a solid balance of quality, with a Piotroski score of 9/9, moat score of 6.5/10 and quality ranking above peers.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score should stay at 8 or higher while margins hold.
CounterReturn and margin components cluster around 6/10 only, which is average rather than exceptional, and revenue growth scores just 3.2/10.
The price of $318.14 is only 1.2% below the $322.04 analyst target against 7.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.16.
↓DeterioratingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Upside should widen above 10% through target raises or a pullback.
CounterA breakout with a golden cross and a four-quarter beat streak could lead analysts to raise targets above the current price.
A breakout setup is in place with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI at 68 and bullish MACD, but on-balance volume is falling and the 200-day slope is flat.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume should turn up and price should hold above its 200-day average.
CounterFalling volume shows distribution into strength, and the breakout may fail near the analyst target.
Insiders sold $11.5M recently (0.121% of market cap) while earnings estimates are trending down, a cautionary pairing for a stock at its target.
↓DeterioratingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay below 0.2% of market cap and estimates should stabilize.
CounterInsider sales are modest relative to market cap and institutions are accumulating, which offsets the signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.3 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $11,515,235 (0.117% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $260
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.24
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.7, Momentum at 6.7, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Insider at 5.6, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Solid Quality And Moat
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 6 from current 9.
- P3Limited Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target exceeds 12% from current 1.2%.
- P4Breakout With Distribution Volume
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop of $298.70 and RSI drops below 45 from current 68.
- P5Insider Selling And Falling Estimates
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap from current 0.121%.