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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. At $27.76, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 Mobility Coatings customers (61.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Axalta Coating Systems is a global manufacturer of high-performance coatings across Performance Coatings (refinish and industrial, ~$X net sales serving approximately 96,000 body shops) and Mobility Coatings (light and commercial vehicle OEM, top 10 customers at 61% of segment... Read more

$27.76+10.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.02%
Stop $25.82Target $30.64(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$35.21+26.9%14 analysts
$30.64our TP
$27.76price
$35.21mean
$42

Sell if holding. At $27.76, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 Mobility Coatings customers (61.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val8.2Qual5.5Grw6.2Mom4.3Sent6.8Ins5.1Peer3.9Tech6.2Risk5.65.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 Mobility Coatings customers (61.0%)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.1
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$5.9B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth-0.6%
Beta1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.06bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 10 Mobility Coatings customers61%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for approximately 61% of our Mobility Coatings net sales during the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • LOWCustomertop 10 Performance Coatings customers17%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for approximately 17% of our Performance Coatings net sales during the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
6.2
Value Rank
7.2
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.36Resistance $30.31

Price Targets

$26
$31
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $27.76, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 Mobility Coatings customers (61.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $25.82. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.64 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $25.82. Stop-loss: $25.82.

What are the risks of investing in AXTA?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 Mobility Coatings customers (61.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is AXTA overvalued or undervalued?

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXTA?

22 analysts cover AXTA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. do?Axalta Coating Systems is a global manufacturer of high-performance coatings across Performance Coatings (refinish and...

Axalta Coating Systems is a global manufacturer of high-performance coatings across Performance Coatings (refinish and industrial, ~$X net sales serving approximately 96,000 body shops) and Mobility Coatings (light and commercial vehicle OEM, top 10 customers at 61% of segment sales) segments. A proposed all-stock merger with AkzoNobel N.V. was announced November 2025. The company operates in 140+ countries.

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