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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. At $28.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Axalta Coating Systems manufactures and distributes high-performance coatings in two segments—Performance Coatings (refinish, industrial) and Mobility Coatings—serving global auto body shops, OEMs, and industrial customers with over 150 years of heritage. An all-stock merger... Read more

$28.58+11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
Stop $26.77Target $31.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$36.50+27.7%14 analysts
$31.75our TP
$28.58price
$36.50mean
$42

Sell if holding. At $28.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth-3.7%
Beta1.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.60bearish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.07Resistance $31.23

Price Targets

$27
$32
A.Upside+11.1%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $28.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $26.77. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.75 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $26.77. Stop-loss: $26.77.

What are the risks of investing in AXTA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Is AXTA overvalued or undervalued?

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXTA?

22 analysts cover AXTA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. do?Axalta Coating Systems manufactures and distributes high-performance coatings in two segments—Performance Coatings...

Axalta Coating Systems manufactures and distributes high-performance coatings in two segments—Performance Coatings (refinish, industrial) and Mobility Coatings—serving global auto body shops, OEMs, and industrial customers with over 150 years of heritage. An all-stock merger with AkzoNobel N.V. was announced in November 2025; Axalta shareholders are expected to own 45% of the combined company.

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