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AxoGen, Inc. (AXGN) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

AxoGen is focused on peripheral nerve regeneration and repair, commercializing the FDA-approved Avance Nerve Graft (acellular nerve allograft), Axoguard Nerve Connector, Nerve Protector, Nerve Cap, and Avive+ Soft Tissue Matrix, primarily in the US. Avance Products represent... Read more

$43.30+4.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $40.06Target $44.91(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$48.89+12.9%9 analysts
$44.91our TP
$43.30price
$48.89mean
$40
$55

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Avance Products (60.0%)
Target reached (-1.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)54.8
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA-1002.5
Profit Mgn-13.2%
ROE-18.0%
Rev Growth26.6%
Beta0.98
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$18-59.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAvance Products60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 60% of our total revenues are from sales of Avance Products'
  • MEDIUMSupplierEvergen
    10-K Item 1A: 'Axoguard Nerve Connector and Axoguard Nerve Protector are only available through a distribution agreement with Evergen.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.5
Moat
5.0
Rule Of 40
5.5
Current Ratio
5.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 8%, FCF yield 0.8%)No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.42Resistance $45.83

Price Targets

$40
$45
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXGN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $40.06. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXGN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.91 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $40.06. Stop-loss: $40.06.

What are the risks of investing in AXGN?

Concentration risk — Product: Avance Products (60.0%); Target reached (-1.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AXGN overvalued or undervalued?

AxoGen, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 54.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXGN?

16 analysts cover AXGN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $49.

What does AxoGen, Inc. do?AxoGen is focused on peripheral nerve regeneration and repair, commercializing the FDA-approved Avance Nerve Graft...

AxoGen is focused on peripheral nerve regeneration and repair, commercializing the FDA-approved Avance Nerve Graft (acellular nerve allograft), Axoguard Nerve Connector, Nerve Protector, Nerve Cap, and Avive+ Soft Tissue Matrix, primarily in the US. Avance Products represent approximately 60% of total revenues.

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