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Insulet Corporation (PODD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldAI GATE: FLAGGED — 2 risksModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $169.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Omnipod product platform; Concentration risk — Customer: Amgen.

Insulet Corporation develops and sells the Omnipod platform — a tubeless, wearable insulin delivery system — for people with insulin-dependent diabetes, with international sales comprising 28% of 2025 revenues. It also produces a customized Pod for Amgen's Neulasta Onpro drug... Read more

$169.25+73.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#15 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $157.56Target $293.71(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 8.4:1
Analyst target$326.35+92.8%23 analysts
$293.71our TP
$169.25price
$326.35mean
$435

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $169.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Omnipod product platform; Concentration risk — Customer: Amgen. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and news soft fda negative and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 73%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Omnipod product platform
Concentration risk — Customer: Amgen
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.1
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$11.1B
EV/EBITDA20.5
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE18.1%
Rev Growth31.2%
Beta1.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$500+195.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductOmnipod product platform
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect to continue to derive nearly all our revenue from our Omnipod product platform.'
  • HIGHCustomerAmgen
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our commercialized Drug Delivery revenue consists of sales of a customized version of our product for use in Amgen's Neulasta Onpro kit under an agreement that expires in December 2028.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-24Item 4.01HIGH
    Auditor change: Grant Thornton LLP dismissed after completing fiscal 2025 audit. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP selected as independent auditor for fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-04Item 5.02LOW
    Ana M. Chadwick (former CFO) entered severance agreement on February 27, 2026. No material compensation differences from previously disclosed terms; includes standard release and non-disparagement provisions.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)NEWS SOFT FDA NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 8.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $158.35Resistance $209.35

Price Targets

$158
$294
A.Upside+73.5%
A.R:R8.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! NEWS_SOFT:FDA_NEGATIVE

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PODD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $169.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Omnipod product platform; Concentration risk — Customer: Amgen. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $293.71 (+73.5%), stop $157.56 (−7.4%), A.R:R 8.4:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PODD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $293.71 (+73.4% upside). Target $293.71 (+73.5%), stop $157.56 (−7.4%), A.R:R 8.4:1. Stop-loss: $157.56.

What are the risks of investing in PODD?

Concentration risk — Product: Omnipod product platform; Concentration risk — Customer: Amgen; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is PODD overvalued or undervalued?

Insulet Corporation trades at a P/E of 46.1 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PODD?

34 analysts cover PODD with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $326.

What does Insulet Corporation do?Insulet Corporation develops and sells the Omnipod platform — a tubeless, wearable insulin delivery system — for people...

Insulet Corporation develops and sells the Omnipod platform — a tubeless, wearable insulin delivery system — for people with insulin-dependent diabetes, with international sales comprising 28% of 2025 revenues. It also produces a customized Pod for Amgen's Neulasta Onpro drug delivery kit, which constitutes substantially all Drug Delivery segment revenue.

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