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Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $85.06. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $96.16. Engine's entry $85.06 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial services company with ~$24.8 billion in assets, operating Axos Bank (digital banking with consumer/commercial mortgages and C&I loans nationwide) and Axos Clearing and Axos Invest (securities custody, clearing, and advisory).... Read more

$96.16+11.6% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#52 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $85.06(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $79.42Target $97.93(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$109.50+13.9%6 analysts
$97.93our TP
$96.16price
$109.50mean
$115

Wait for pullback to $85.06. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $96.16. Engine's entry $85.06 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.0
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth21.8%
Beta1.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.89bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$40-58.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia and New York
    10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $83.70Resistance $99.93

Price Targets

$79
$85
$98
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R-0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.4% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $85.06. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $96.16. Engine's entry $85.06 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $97.93 (+1.8%), stop $79.42 (−21.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.93 (+11.6% upside). Target $97.93 (+1.8%), stop $79.42 (−21.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $79.42.

What are the risks of investing in AX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AX overvalued or undervalued?

Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AX?

14 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial services company with ~$24.8 billion in assets, operating Axos Bank...

Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial services company with ~$24.8 billion in assets, operating Axos Bank (digital banking with consumer/commercial mortgages and C&I loans nationwide) and Axos Clearing and Axos Invest (securities custody, clearing, and advisory). Revenue comes from net interest income on its diversified loan portfolio and fee-based securities and investment services.

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