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AXAxos Financial, Inc.Hold6.1·$97.95+0.94%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

An attractively valued regional bank with three beats in the last four quarters and strong margins of 36% trades at a forward multiple of roughly 9 times earnings, but an extreme put/call ratio of 8.48 and a most-recent earnings miss of 10.8% warrant caution despite the favorable valuation signal.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Strong MarginsStable
  • Extreme Bearish Options PositioningDeteriorating
  • Recent Earnings Miss Breaks StreakStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $97.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 5.8%.

Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial holding company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and approximately $39.4 billion in assets under custody and/or administration at its Axos Clearing subsidiary. The company operates through two segments — Banking, offering... Read more

$97.95+5.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#101 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $93.55Target $103.65(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$119.14+21.6%7 analysts
$103.65our TP
$97.95price
$119.14mean
$128

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $97.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 5.8%. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05

Recent Developments — Axos Financial, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-05T21:17:34Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.8%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)9.1
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn35.5%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth18.1%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia and New York
    10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $94.00Resistance $102.80

Price Targets

$94
$104
A.Upside+5.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $97.95, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 5.8%. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $103.65 (+5.8%), stop $93.55 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $103.65 (+5.8% upside). Target $103.65 (+5.8%), stop $93.55 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $93.55.

What are the risks of investing in AX?

Thin upside margin: 5.8%.

Is AX overvalued or undervalued?

Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AX?

15 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $119.

What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial holding company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and...

Axos Financial is a technology-driven financial holding company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and approximately $39.4 billion in assets under custody and/or administration at its Axos Clearing subsidiary. The company operates through two segments — Banking, offering digital consumer and commercial banking, mortgage, and commercial lending products nationwide through Axos Bank, and Securities, providing clearing, custody, and investment advisory services to 327 correspondent broker-dealers and RIAs through Axos Clearing, Axos Advisor Services, and Axos Invest.

Related stocks: CARE (Carter Bankshares, Inc.) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · FBK (FB Financial Corporation) · RCBC (RIVER CITY BANK) · AUB (Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo)
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