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Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Negative momentum.

Axos Financial is a diversified digital financial services company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and $39.4 billion in assets under custody through Axos Clearing. Axos Bank offers consumer and commercial banking products nationwide via digital/mobile platforms,... Read more

$85.97+11.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#69 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
Stop $80.11Target $95.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$110.17+28.1%6 analysts
$95.85our TP
$85.97price
$110.17mean
$114

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Axos Financial, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.30
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C8.60bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$70-18.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia and New York real estate loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $82.14Resistance $99.93

Price Targets

$80
$96
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $95.85 (+11.5%), stop $80.11 (−7.3%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.85 (+11.5% upside). Target $95.85 (+11.5%), stop $80.11 (−7.3%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $80.11.

What are the risks of investing in AX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California and New York real estate loans; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is AX overvalued or undervalued?

Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AX?

14 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial is a diversified digital financial services company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and $39.4...

Axos Financial is a diversified digital financial services company with approximately $24.8 billion in assets and $39.4 billion in assets under custody through Axos Clearing. Axos Bank offers consumer and commercial banking products nationwide via digital/mobile platforms, including mortgages, CRE loans, C&I loans, and deposits; the Securities Business Segment provides clearing and advisory services to broker-dealers and RIAs.

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