Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
AX · Why this verdict
Why Axos Financial (AX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Axos Financial is a regional bank with 35% margins, 21% YoY growth and a forward P/E of 8.2x, beating EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters. With 14.0% upside to the analyst target against 5.0% downside, the reward-to-risk of 2.8 is favorable, though the chart is range-bound.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.2x with a PEG of 0.52 while growing 21% YoY, which makes it attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should sustain a PEG below 1.0 and support a re-rating toward the analyst target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBank valuations are cyclical, and a low multiple may signal market expectations of credit losses or slower growth ahead. | ||
Axos earns strong margins of 35% and a Piotroski score of 8/9, with quality ranking well above peers and superior ROE versus peers. Quality breakdown | Net margin should stay above 30% and the Piotroski score at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 1.2/10 and ROE only 5.6/10, so margins may not translate into strong shareholder returns. | ||
Axos beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 4.7%, though it missed by 10.8% in April 2026. Avg surprise pct | EPS should keep beating estimates ahead of the report due 2027-01-28. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 10.8% miss shows earnings can swing sharply for a bank, and one large beat of 17.4% inflates the average. | ||
At $90.38 the stock is 14.0% below the $103.03 analyst target versus 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.8. Estimated upside | Price should move toward the $103.03 analyst target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a range-bound chart with falling volume may keep price stuck. | ||
The chart is range-bound with momentum at 5.3/10, falling on-balance volume and price below a still-rising 200-day average, while put/call is elevated at 19.29. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising (+0.2%/30d) so this reads as a pullback in an uptrend, and heavy put volume may be hedging. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.2x with a PEG of 0.52 while growing 21% YoY, which makes it attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should sustain a PEG below 1.0 and support a re-rating toward the analyst target.
CounterBank valuations are cyclical, and a low multiple may signal market expectations of credit losses or slower growth ahead.
Axos earns strong margins of 35% and a Piotroski score of 8/9, with quality ranking well above peers and superior ROE versus peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should stay above 30% and the Piotroski score at 8 or higher.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 1.2/10 and ROE only 5.6/10, so margins may not translate into strong shareholder returns.
Axos beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 4.7%, though it missed by 10.8% in April 2026.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates ahead of the report due 2027-01-28.
CounterThe 10.8% miss shows earnings can swing sharply for a bank, and one large beat of 17.4% inflates the average.
At $90.38 the stock is 14.0% below the $103.03 analyst target versus 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.8.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $103.03 analyst target within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a range-bound chart with falling volume may keep price stuck.
The chart is range-bound with momentum at 5.3/10, falling on-balance volume and price below a still-rising 200-day average, while put/call is elevated at 19.29.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 5.5.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising (+0.2%/30d) so this reads as a pullback in an uptrend, and heavy put volume may be hedging.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 2.5 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.43
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.91
Upside
+8.3%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.4; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Momentum at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Catalyst at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.91 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation For Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from current 0.52.
- P2Strong Margins Solid Fundamentals
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from current 35%.
- P3Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Favorable Reward To Risk
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 5% from current 14.0%.
- P5Range Bound Momentum Elevated Puts
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop of $86.30 with momentum score below 4.5 from current 5.3.