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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S (AVAL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.41: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. provides a range of financial services and products in Colombia and Central America. The company offers traditional deposit services and products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and other deposits. It also... Read more

$4.41+12.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#71 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $4.09Target $4.88(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$4.00-9.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.41: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-21.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn12.9%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth18.8%
Beta0.43
Dividend4.00%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Roa
0.6
Roe
3.1
Moat
5.0
Net Margin
6.4
Piotroski F
7.8
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.22Resistance $4.98

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside+10.7%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.41: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $4.09. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.88 (+12.2% upside). Prior stop was $4.09. Stop-loss: $4.09.

What are the risks of investing in AVAL?

Target reached (-21.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is AVAL overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVAL?

7 analysts cover AVAL with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $4.

What does Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S do?Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. provides a range of financial services and products in Colombia and Central America....

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. provides a range of financial services and products in Colombia and Central America. The company offers traditional deposit services and products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and other deposits. It also provides commercial loans comprising general purpose loans, working capital loans, leases, loans funded by development banks, corporate credit cards, and overdraft loans; consumer loans, such as payroll loans, personal loans, automobile and other vehicle loans, credit cards, overdrafts, leases, and general-purpose loans; and microcredit and mortgage loans. In addition, the company offers pension and severance fund management services; investment banking services, including services relating to capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and delivering financial consulting services; mobile and online banking services; and bancassurance, insurance, trust, bonded warehousing, real estate escrow, merchandise and document storage and deposit, customs agency, cargo management, surety bond and merchandise distribution, and payment and collection services, as well as provides deposit and lending operations in foreign currencies. Further, it is involved in equity investments in various sectors, including infrastructure, energy and gas, agribusiness, and hotels; and providing treasury operations. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia.

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