Value
9.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
AVAL · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S (AVAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 3.3 sits below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, driven by below-average returns on assets and the absence of a recognized competitive moat — signaling that the business's fundamental underpinning does not yet meet the bar for durable ownership. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.5 within 4 quarters, reflecting improvement in returns on capital or moat-related metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 is an above-average signal of financial health; the quality shortfall may be concentrated in moat assessment and return metrics that can improve as the credit cycle turns, not in the structural financial condition of the business. | ||
The stock trades materially above the analyst consensus price target, suggesting the market has priced in a more optimistic scenario than the sell-side currently supports — a configuration that provides little fundamental cushion from current levels. Warnings | Price corrects by more than 20% from current levels, returning to a range consistent with analyst consensus estimates before re-evaluation. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive strong quarterly beats — including a 274% positive surprise in the most recent period — could prompt sell-side analysts to revise their targets upward, retroactively closing the gap between current price and consensus and removing the apparent overvaluation. | ||
The RSI has reached overbought territory at 70 while the stock sits near 52-week highs — a configuration where, absent a fresh fundamental catalyst, buyers entering at current levels can be exposed to a sharp mean-reversion. Momentum breakdown | RSI retreats below 55 within the next 30 trading days without a breakdown in the underlying fundamental trend. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought RSI readings in uptrending markets can persist for extended periods; rising on-balance volume suggests genuine accumulation rather than speculative froth, and strong momentum can continue well past technical overbought readings. | ||
With only 2.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target of $5.63 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.42 to 1, potential downside exceeds potential upside by more than 2 to 1 from current levels — the geometry strongly favors patience over deployment. Price targets | A pullback of more than 10% from current levels restores a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5 before any new position is initiated. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the underlying earnings momentum supports analyst target revisions upward, the near-term resistance level could shift higher, retroactively improving the reward/risk geometry from a higher price base. | ||
The two most recent quarters both delivered meaningful positive surprises — including a 274% beat in the latest period — after an in-line quarter and a miss in the prior two, suggesting earnings delivery is improving even as the stock trades above consensus price targets. Earnings | The next two reported quarters each beat consensus by more than 10%, sustaining the recent acceleration in earnings outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterThe improvement in the two most recent quarters follows a miss at the oldest period in the trailing four; a single weak quarter could reverse the apparent improvement trend, and guidance remains unknown, making forward earnings difficult to anchor. | ||
The quality score of 3.3 sits below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, driven by below-average returns on assets and the absence of a recognized competitive moat — signaling that the business's fundamental underpinning does not yet meet the bar for durable ownership.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.5 within 4 quarters, reflecting improvement in returns on capital or moat-related metrics.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 is an above-average signal of financial health; the quality shortfall may be concentrated in moat assessment and return metrics that can improve as the credit cycle turns, not in the structural financial condition of the business.
The stock trades materially above the analyst consensus price target, suggesting the market has priced in a more optimistic scenario than the sell-side currently supports — a configuration that provides little fundamental cushion from current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price corrects by more than 20% from current levels, returning to a range consistent with analyst consensus estimates before re-evaluation.
CounterTwo consecutive strong quarterly beats — including a 274% positive surprise in the most recent period — could prompt sell-side analysts to revise their targets upward, retroactively closing the gap between current price and consensus and removing the apparent overvaluation.
The RSI has reached overbought territory at 70 while the stock sits near 52-week highs — a configuration where, absent a fresh fundamental catalyst, buyers entering at current levels can be exposed to a sharp mean-reversion.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI retreats below 55 within the next 30 trading days without a breakdown in the underlying fundamental trend.
CounterOverbought RSI readings in uptrending markets can persist for extended periods; rising on-balance volume suggests genuine accumulation rather than speculative froth, and strong momentum can continue well past technical overbought readings.
With only 2.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target of $5.63 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.42 to 1, potential downside exceeds potential upside by more than 2 to 1 from current levels — the geometry strongly favors patience over deployment.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback of more than 10% from current levels restores a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5 before any new position is initiated.
CounterIf the underlying earnings momentum supports analyst target revisions upward, the near-term resistance level could shift higher, retroactively improving the reward/risk geometry from a higher price base.
The two most recent quarters both delivered meaningful positive surprises — including a 274% beat in the latest period — after an in-line quarter and a miss in the prior two, suggesting earnings delivery is improving even as the stock trades above consensus price targets.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next two reported quarters each beat consensus by more than 10%, sustaining the recent acceleration in earnings outperformance.
CounterThe improvement in the two most recent quarters follows a miss at the oldest period in the trailing four; a single weak quarter could reverse the apparent improvement trend, and guidance remains unknown, making forward earnings difficult to anchor.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Aval currently trades well above its analyst consensus price target while quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio is an unfavorable 0.42 to 1 — the setup argues for avoiding new positions despite two consecutive strong earnings beats.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 9.8 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.6 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 6.5 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunity
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.7 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 342.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.96
Upside
-22.7%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Growth at 8.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 3.3, Sentiment at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Stock Above Analyst Consensus Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 20% from current levels over any 60-day window.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.5 for 2 consecutive measurement periods.
- P3Overbought Momentum Reversal Risk
Trip ifRSI retreats below 50 for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4Unfavorable Near Term Risk Reward
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 following a price pullback of more than 10% from current levels.
- P5Improving Earnings Trend
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in either of the next 2 reported quarters.