Value
9.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.41
- ▸Attractively valued
AVAL · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S (AVAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.3, with no competitive moat despite a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as profitability improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score points to improving fundamentals, so low quality may reflect weak ROE rather than deteriorating trends. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 7.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.42. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterEmerging-market bank multiples carry country and currency risk, and quality is only 3.3, so the discount may be warranted. | ||
Price of $4.43 is 2.1% above the $4.33 analyst target, so upside to the target is gone and reward-to-risk is negative. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised or the stock pulls back toward support. | →Stable |
| CounterA 15% haircut was applied to the analyst target, which may understate the raw target. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters and missed once (0.16 versus 0.17 expected in August 2026), with an average surprise of 73.3% inflated by one large beat. Earnings track record | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-10 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 274% beat in February 2026 distorts the average, and the latest quarter was a miss, so earnings momentum is uneven. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.9 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 2.5% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA rising 200-day average means this may be a pullback in an uptrend, and a dividend yield of 4.5% offers support. | ||
Business quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.3, with no competitive moat despite a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as profitability improves.
CounterA strong Piotroski score points to improving fundamentals, so low quality may reflect weak ROE rather than deteriorating trends.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 7.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.42.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings grow.
CounterEmerging-market bank multiples carry country and currency risk, and quality is only 3.3, so the discount may be warranted.
Price of $4.43 is 2.1% above the $4.33 analyst target, so upside to the target is gone and reward-to-risk is negative.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised or the stock pulls back toward support.
CounterA 15% haircut was applied to the analyst target, which may understate the raw target.
EPS beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters and missed once (0.16 versus 0.17 expected in August 2026), with an average surprise of 73.3% inflated by one large beat.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-10 report.
CounterThe 274% beat in February 2026 distorts the average, and the latest quarter was a miss, so earnings momentum is uneven.
Momentum is weak at 2.9 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 2.5% over 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterA rising 200-day average means this may be a pullback in an uptrend, and a dividend yield of 4.5% offers support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.02
Upside
+0.1%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of 0.02.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, and Technical at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Quality at 3.3, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from the current 7.0x.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 10% from the current 2.1%.
- P3Low Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.3.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the $4.28 stop level from the current $4.43.