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AXIA Energia (AXIA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Renewable

Sell if holding. At $10.69, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a... Read more

$10.69+8.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 10 Utilities - Renewable
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.74%
IncomeYield4.86%(5y avg 3.02%)Payout64.74%
Stop $10.21Target $11.64(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$13.70+28.2%3 analysts
$11.64our TP
$10.69price
$13.70mean
$15

Sell if holding. At $10.69, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — AXIA Energia

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.9%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$24.4B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth22.1%
Beta0.33
Dividend4.86%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 486.0%
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.53Resistance $12.92

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+8.9%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXIA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $10.69, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $10.21. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXIA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.64 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $10.21. Stop-loss: $10.21.

What are the risks of investing in AXIA?

Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is AXIA overvalued or undervalued?

AXIA Energia trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXIA?

16 analysts cover AXIA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does AXIA Energia do?AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization...

AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a total capacity of 43,072.7 MW; 798.7 MW wind power plants; and 67,030.74 km of transmission lines. The company was formerly known as Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás. AXIA Energia SA was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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