Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
AUGO · Why this verdict
Why Aura Minerals (AUGO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aura Minerals is a high-quality gold miner (ROE 100%, revenue up 76% YoY) trading at a forward P/E of 8.4x with 35.3% upside to the analyst target, but earnings have missed four quarters running, insiders have sold 3.16% of market cap and the low multiple may reflect peak commodity earnings.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The forward P/E of 8.4x and a forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.45 suggest earnings just expanded on a commodity-price surge, leaving mean-reversion risk unpriced. Bear case | Forward earnings estimates hold even if the gold price retraces. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf gold stays elevated the low multiple is a real bargain, and analysts see 55% upside to their target. | ||
Business quality is high, with 100% ROE, 23% margins, 135% free cash flow to net income and a wide economic moat. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 40% and margins above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGold-miner returns swing with the commodity price, so a 100% ROE may mark a cycle peak rather than a durable level. | ||
Revenue is growing 76% YoY, the strongest growth score of 10 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because only revenue growth is available, and the surge may come from a one-off gold-price jump. | ||
EPS missed estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including 0.07 versus 0.86 expected in November 2025 and 1.15 versus 1.23 in August 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS meets or beats estimates at the next report in 4 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe miss size is narrowing (-6.5% in the latest quarter versus -91.8% a year earlier), which may mark an improving trend. | ||
Insiders have sold $175,563,737, or 3.162% of market cap, an extreme level of selling that coincides with a momentum score of 3.1 and an RSI of 23. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows below 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and large sales may reflect a controlling holder diversifying rather than a view on the business. | ||
The forward P/E of 8.4x and a forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.45 suggest earnings just expanded on a commodity-price surge, leaving mean-reversion risk unpriced.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates hold even if the gold price retraces.
CounterIf gold stays elevated the low multiple is a real bargain, and analysts see 55% upside to their target.
Business quality is high, with 100% ROE, 23% margins, 135% free cash flow to net income and a wide economic moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 40% and margins above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterGold-miner returns swing with the commodity price, so a 100% ROE may mark a cycle peak rather than a durable level.
Revenue is growing 76% YoY, the strongest growth score of 10 out of 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because only revenue growth is available, and the surge may come from a one-off gold-price jump.
EPS missed estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including 0.07 versus 0.86 expected in November 2025 and 1.15 versus 1.23 in August 2026.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the next report in 4 days.
CounterThe miss size is narrowing (-6.5% in the latest quarter versus -91.8% a year earlier), which may mark an improving trend.
Insiders have sold $175,563,737, or 3.162% of market cap, an extreme level of selling that coincides with a momentum score of 3.1 and an RSI of 23.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows below 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and large sales may reflect a controlling holder diversifying rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 100%
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 135% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 76% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.3 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $175,564,448 (2.893% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 16% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend: 3.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- INSIDER:2.89%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=9.2x,ratio=0.45x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.87
Upside
+28.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.4
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.6 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.87 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.6, and Value at 8.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Momentum at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.87 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Returns
Trip ifROE falls below 40% from the current 100%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 25% YoY from the current 76%.
- P3Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 8.4x as forward estimates are cut.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P5Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 5% of market cap from the current 3.162%.