Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
ATEC · Why this verdict
Why Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alphatec is a fast-growing, now free-cash-flow-positive spine device maker trading 70% off its high with 76.1% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed downtrend, high leverage and supplier concentration make it a speculative recovery bet.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is FCF-positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 4% and FCF yield of 2.8%, while gross margin scores 10 out of 10. Quality breakdown | FCF margin rises above 5% as operating leverage builds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRule of 40 is only 16 (fail) and operating margin is just 0.7 on the scoring scale, so profitability is fragile. | ||
Revenue has grown from $196.5M to $221.2M in the year to September 2026 (about 12.6%), with sequential growth continuing and next-quarter revenue estimated at $238.3M. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue reaches at least $238M in the next report and keeps growing double digits YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterLast two quarters were only in-line on EPS and one prior quarter shows no data; growth could decelerate in a crowded spine market. | ||
The analyst target of $12.40 implies 76.1% upside from $7.04, with reward-to-risk of 5.07 versus 15% downside. Upside pct | Price recovers toward the $12.40 analyst target as the oversold condition (RSI 24) resolves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock fell 39.7% in a gap down on a 6.8x volume surge, suggesting informed selling that analyst targets may not yet reflect. | ||
Momentum is a confirmed downtrend: price is below the 200-day average with a -12.4% per 30-day slope, falling on-balance volume and a momentum score of 2.7. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum score rises above 4.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapitulation selling with RSI 24 often marks an oversold bottom, and insiders bought about $1.0M during the period. | ||
Balance sheet and supply chain risk is elevated: leverage penalty reflects D/E of 27.9 and supplier concentration risk is flagged with Invibio. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines and supplier concentration risk does not escalate over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA current ratio score of 8.1 suggests adequate near-term liquidity, so leverage may be manageable. | ||
The business is FCF-positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 4% and FCF yield of 2.8%, while gross margin scores 10 out of 10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin rises above 5% as operating leverage builds.
CounterRule of 40 is only 16 (fail) and operating margin is just 0.7 on the scoring scale, so profitability is fragile.
Revenue has grown from $196.5M to $221.2M in the year to September 2026 (about 12.6%), with sequential growth continuing and next-quarter revenue estimated at $238.3M.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches at least $238M in the next report and keeps growing double digits YoY.
CounterLast two quarters were only in-line on EPS and one prior quarter shows no data; growth could decelerate in a crowded spine market.
The analyst target of $12.40 implies 76.1% upside from $7.04, with reward-to-risk of 5.07 versus 15% downside.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price recovers toward the $12.40 analyst target as the oversold condition (RSI 24) resolves.
CounterThe stock fell 39.7% in a gap down on a 6.8x volume surge, suggesting informed selling that analyst targets may not yet reflect.
Momentum is a confirmed downtrend: price is below the 200-day average with a -12.4% per 30-day slope, falling on-balance volume and a momentum score of 2.7.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum score rises above 4.5.
CounterCapitulation selling with RSI 24 often marks an oversold bottom, and insiders bought about $1.0M during the period.
Balance sheet and supply chain risk is elevated: leverage penalty reflects D/E of 27.9 and supplier concentration risk is flagged with Invibio.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines and supplier concentration risk does not escalate over 12 months.
CounterA current ratio score of 8.1 suggests adequate near-term liquidity, so leverage may be manageable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 3.7 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 2.6%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 16 (fail)
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 9.9 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 66%
Insider
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $1,421,750 (0.124% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
2.96
Upside
+44.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -64% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.96 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 8.2, Growth at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, Peer rank at 3.7, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 8% YoY from roughly 12.6% currently.
- P2Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 0% from the current 4%.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst target falls below 30% from the current 76.1%.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below the $6.61 stop level from the current $7.04.
- P5Leverage Supplier Concentration
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 35 from the current 27.9.