Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
ASC · Why this verdict
Why Ardmore Shipping (ASC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ardmore Shipping combines a perfect earnings beat streak and cheap valuation with a failed momentum gate, notable insider selling, and earnings-quality flags that keep the risk/reward thin despite an upcoming catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ardmore Shipping has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, most recently by 8.41%, while trading at an attractive 17.4x forward P/E with a 0.05 PEG. Bull case | The beat streak continues into the next earnings report, due in 25 days. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping is a highly cyclical, rate-driven business; a beat streak built on strong charter rates can reverse quickly once rates normalize, and the momentum gate has already failed. | ||
The momentum gate failed at 3.7, below the 4.5 threshold, and the bear case flags negative momentum despite the stock trading above its 200-day moving average. Warnings | The momentum score recovers above 4.5 as the uptrend pullback described in the technicals resolves higher. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe momentum notes describe the current RSI of 39 as an uptrend pullback and buy opportunity, which is inconsistent with a sustained momentum breakdown and could reverse quickly. | ||
Bear-case value-trap signals cite material insider selling of $1.13 million, or 0.187% of market cap across 9 sales, alongside negative free cash flow. Bear case | Insider selling activity moderates and the insider signal shifts away from BEARISH. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider sales at a dividend-heavy shipping company are frequently routine diversification or plan-driven rather than a signal about company prospects. | ||
The quality model flags an earnings-quality red flag, with free cash flow running at -114% of net income despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves and turns positive relative to net income over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 signals broad balance-sheet and profitability strength, which could mean the negative FCF/NI ratio is a temporary timing effect from vessel capex rather than a structural quality problem. | ||
The catalyst notes flag a trailing dividend yield of 437%, an outsized figure that combined with the failed 1.3 asymmetry gate suggests the dividend may not be sustainable at current levels. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is reduced to a sustainable level, or underlying earnings grow enough to support the current payout. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShipping companies often pay variable, cash-flow-linked dividends tied to quarterly earnings rather than a fixed payout ratio, so a high trailing yield figure doesn't necessarily indicate unsustainability. | ||
Ardmore Shipping has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, most recently by 8.41%, while trading at an attractive 17.4x forward P/E with a 0.05 PEG.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues into the next earnings report, due in 25 days.
CounterShipping is a highly cyclical, rate-driven business; a beat streak built on strong charter rates can reverse quickly once rates normalize, and the momentum gate has already failed.
The momentum gate failed at 3.7, below the 4.5 threshold, and the bear case flags negative momentum despite the stock trading above its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The momentum score recovers above 4.5 as the uptrend pullback described in the technicals resolves higher.
CounterThe momentum notes describe the current RSI of 39 as an uptrend pullback and buy opportunity, which is inconsistent with a sustained momentum breakdown and could reverse quickly.
Bear-case value-trap signals cite material insider selling of $1.13 million, or 0.187% of market cap across 9 sales, alongside negative free cash flow.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Insider selling activity moderates and the insider signal shifts away from BEARISH.
CounterInsider sales at a dividend-heavy shipping company are frequently routine diversification or plan-driven rather than a signal about company prospects.
The quality model flags an earnings-quality red flag, with free cash flow running at -114% of net income despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves and turns positive relative to net income over the next several quarters.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 signals broad balance-sheet and profitability strength, which could mean the negative FCF/NI ratio is a temporary timing effect from vessel capex rather than a structural quality problem.
The catalyst notes flag a trailing dividend yield of 437%, an outsized figure that combined with the failed 1.3 asymmetry gate suggests the dividend may not be sustainable at current levels.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is reduced to a sustainable level, or underlying earnings grow enough to support the current payout.
CounterShipping companies often pay variable, cash-flow-linked dividends tied to quarterly earnings rather than a fixed payout ratio, so a high trailing yield figure doesn't necessarily indicate unsustainability.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -114% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,132,958 (0.173% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.17%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
0.29
Upside
+4.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.4; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Growth at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Insider at 4.9, and Momentum at 6.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Cheap Valuation
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Failed Momentum Gate
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, versus the current 3.7.
- P3Insider Selling Value Trap Flag
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over a 90-day window, up from the current 0.187%.
- P4Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio stays below -50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Dividend Sustainability Risk
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.0, down from the current 1.3.