Arvinas screens cheap on traditional value metrics with meaningful modeled upside, but weak quality metrics, heavy cash burn, and volatile earnings temper the case for a small, institutionally under-followed biotech.
Thesis pillars
- Attractively Valued Vs Target→Stable
- Quality Below Engine Floor→Stable
- Institutionally Constrained Upside→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Arvinas is a clinical-stage biotechnology company using its PROTAC protein-degrader platform to develop small-molecule therapies for oncology and neurology, with five clinical-stage candidates including vepdegestrant, co-developed with Pfizer for ER+/HER2-, ESR1-mutated... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Arvinas, Inc.
About Arvinas, Inc.
Arvinas has advanced five product candidates from its PROTAC protein-degradation platform into clinical development, led by vepdegestrant, co-developed with Pfizer for ER+/HER2-, ESR1-mutated metastatic breast cancer, which the FDA accepted for review with a PDUFA date of June 5, 2026. The company has no approved products and also advances ARV-102, an oral LRRK2 degrader in Phase 1 trials for Parkinson's disease and progressive supranuclear palsy, alongside earlier-stage KRAS-G12D, BCL6, and androgen-receptor-targeted candidates.
Arvinas generates no product revenue and instead funds development through equity financings and payments from collaborators: an early-stage discovery partnership with Pfizer and Genentech/Roche, and an out-license of luxdegalutamide to Novartis that could yield milestone and royalty payments. Vepdegestrant's commercial path depends on Arvinas and Pfizer jointly selecting a third-party partner for commercialization, a decision the companies announced they were pursuing together in the third quarter of 2025 rather than committing to launch the drug themselves. The company's PROTAC Discovery Engine, which pairs proprietary E3-ligase ligand libraries, machine-learning tools, and DNA-encoded-library screening, is designed to be compatible with conventional small-molecule manufacturing processes rather than the complex biologics infrastructure larger degrader or cell-therapy competitors require, an advantage Arvinas cites as supporting scalability and cost control across its entire pipeline, not just vepdegestrant.
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Even with a five-program clinical pipeline, Arvinas faces a concentrated near-term catalyst: the FDA's PDUFA action date for vepdegestrant is June 5, 2026, and the drug's ultimate commercial value depends not just on that approval decision but on Arvinas and Pfizer successfully recruiting a third-party partner to commercialize it, a search the companies had not resolved as of the filing. A rejection, delay, or a disappointing commercialization-partner outcome would remove the platform's most advanced value driver just as ARV-102's Parkinson's and progressive supranuclear palsy data remain early-stage, leaving the company's near-term narrative more concentrated in a single regulatory decision than its five-candidate pipeline might suggest.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Arvinas, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Arvinas, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arvinas Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What To Expect From Arvinas Inc (ARVN) Q3 2026 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - What Are Brokerages Saying About This Stock? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ARVN Stock Jumps 10% After FDA Approves Breast Cancer Drug A Month Ahead Of Schedule - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Oct 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Arvinas to Report Financial Results on November 03 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 Oct 29, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-03T11:39:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-22Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Medical Officer Dr. Noah Berkowitz agreed to depart effective July 3, 2026 to pursue other opportunities; a search for his replacement is underway and he entered a separation agreement with severance benefits.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $12.65 (+68.2%), stop $6.99 (−7.6%), A.R:R 6.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $12.65 (+68.2% upside). Analyst target $12.65 (+68.2%), stop $6.99 (−7.6%), A.R:R 6.6:1. Stop-loss: $6.99.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Arvinas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward -2.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts rate ARVN, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $15.
What does Arvinas, Inc. do?Arvinas is a clinical-stage biotechnology company using its PROTAC protein-degrader platform to develop small-molecule...
Arvinas is a clinical-stage biotechnology company using its PROTAC protein-degrader platform to develop small-molecule therapies for oncology and neurology, with five clinical-stage candidates including vepdegestrant, co-developed with Pfizer for ER+/HER2-, ESR1-mutated metastatic breast cancer, and ARV-102, an oral LRRK2 degrader for Parkinson's disease. The FDA accepted vepdegestrant's NDA with a PDUFA action date of June 5, 2026, and the company has no approved products, collaborating with Pfizer, Genentech, and Novartis to help fund and advance its pipeline.