Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Ares Capital Management.
Ares Capital Corporation is the largest publicly traded BDC with $31.2B total assets, investing primarily in U.S. middle-market companies through first and second lien senior secured loans, subordinated debt, and preferred equity. It is externally managed by Ares Capital... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Ares Capital Management. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartyAres Capital Management10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent upon certain key systems and personnel of Ares for our success and upon their access to other Ares investment professionals.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Ares Capital Management. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $18.22. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.92 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $18.22. Stop-loss: $18.22.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Ares Capital Management; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Ares Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover ARCC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.
What does Ares Capital Corporation do?Ares Capital Corporation is the largest publicly traded BDC with $31.2B total assets, investing primarily in U.S....
Ares Capital Corporation is the largest publicly traded BDC with $31.2B total assets, investing primarily in U.S. middle-market companies through first and second lien senior secured loans, subordinated debt, and preferred equity. It is externally managed by Ares Capital Management LLC, a subsidiary of Ares Management, and earns net investment income from its loan portfolio.