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Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Ares Capital is the largest publicly traded business development company (BDC) with $31.2 billion in total assets, investing primarily in first and second lien senior secured loans to U.S. middle-market companies with annual EBITDA between $10M and $250M. Revenue comes from... Read more

$18.52+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#54 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.82%
IncomeYield10.34%(5y avg 8.97%)Payout117.79%at-risk
Stop $17.92Target $19.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$20.85+12.6%13 analysts
$19.07our TP
$18.52price
$20.85mean
$23

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ares Capital Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.3%
ROE8.3%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta0.63
Dividend10.34%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.18bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$10-46.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.5
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MDividend: 1034.0%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.42Resistance $19.46

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARCC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $17.92. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARCC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.07 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $17.92. Stop-loss: $17.92.

What are the risks of investing in ARCC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ARCC overvalued or undervalued?

Ares Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARCC?

20 analysts cover ARCC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Ares Capital Corporation do?Ares Capital is the largest publicly traded business development company (BDC) with $31.2 billion in total assets,...

Ares Capital is the largest publicly traded business development company (BDC) with $31.2 billion in total assets, investing primarily in first and second lien senior secured loans to U.S. middle-market companies with annual EBITDA between $10M and $250M. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its diversified loan portfolio, with capital raised through equity and debt issuances. Externally managed by Ares Capital Management LLC, a subsidiary of Ares Management.

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