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A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum.

A.O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products through North America (78% of 2025 sales) and Rest of World segments (primarily China, India, Europe). The company is the largest manufacturer and marketer of... Read more

$60.73+12.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
Stop $58.04Target $68.12(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$78.30+28.9%10 analysts
$68.12our TP
$60.73price
$78.30mean
$100

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.5
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn14.3%
ROE29.2%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta1.35
Dividend2.23%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C9.50bearish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicChina18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18 percent of our sales in 2025 were attributable to China'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers41%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our five largest customers represented approximately 41 percent of our sales in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.8
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $59.83Resistance $67.51

Price Targets

$58
$68
A.Upside+12.2%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AOS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $68.12 (+12.2%), stop $58.04 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.12 (+12.5% upside). Target $68.12 (+12.2%), stop $58.04 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $58.04.

What are the risks of investing in AOS?

Negative momentum.

Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?

A.O. Smith Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AOS?

18 analysts cover AOS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.

What does A.O. Smith Corporation do?A.O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products...

A.O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products through North America (78% of 2025 sales) and Rest of World segments (primarily China, India, Europe). The company is the largest manufacturer and marketer of water heaters in North America, with brands A.O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, and Aquasana. China represented approximately 18% of 2025 sales, and the top five customers represented approximately 41% of total sales.

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