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AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc.Sell5.1·$9.75
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revenue has grown approximately 153% year-over-year—among the highest growth rates in the sector—but the business is cash-burning at approximately 39% of revenue, lacks a competitive moat, broke a three-quarter earnings beat streak with a significant miss, and carries weak price momentum; the growth optionality is real but currently outweighed by fundamental fragility and quality well below the 4.0 minimum threshold.

Thesis pillars

  • Recent Earnings Miss Breaks Streak→Stable
  • Severe Quality Deficit Cash Burn→Stable
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Amprius Technologies, Inc. (AMPX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 10.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.80; Below-average business quality.

Our disruptive silicon anode technology is intended to enable batteries with high energy density, high power density and fast charging capabilities over a wide range of operating temperatures. This results in our batteries providing superior performance compared to conventional... Read more

$9.75+105.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#17 of 23 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-2.54%
Stop $9.07Target $20.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 10.2:1
Analyst target$23.00+135.9%9 analysts
$20.01our TP
$9.75price
$23.00mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 10.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — Amprius Technologies, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-26T04:41:59Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)96.9
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA-91.6
Profit Mgn-33.4%
ROE-36.1%
Rev Growth125.9%
Beta2.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.80bearish
IV75%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -33.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.5
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
5.8
Moat
5.8
Cash-burning: FCF -33% of revenueQuality concerns

Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.9
Short Interest
1.9
Beta
2.2
Days To Cover
5.4
Debt Equity
9.8
High short interest justified: 16%Elevated put/call: 3.80High IV: 75%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.1
Support Resistance
4.6
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 10.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
48 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.76Resistance $10.60

Price Targets

$9
$20
A.Upside+105.2%
A.R:R10.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMPX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 10.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $9.07. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMPX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.01 (+105.2% upside). Prior stop was $9.07. Stop-loss: $9.07.

What are the risks of investing in AMPX?

Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is AMPX overvalued or undervalued?

Amprius Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 96.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMPX?

17 analysts cover AMPX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Amprius Technologies, Inc. do?Our disruptive silicon anode technology is intended to enable batteries with high energy density, high power density...

Our disruptive silicon anode technology is intended to enable batteries with high energy density, high power density and fast charging capabilities over a wide range of operating temperatures. This results in our batteries providing superior performance compared to conventional graphite lithium-ion batteries. Our silicon anodes are a direct drop-in replacement of the graphite anode in traditional lithium-ion batteries, and our manufacturing processes leverage the manufacturing processes

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